Match Analysis: Deontay Wilder vs Tyrrell Anthony Herndon – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-27
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Charles Koch Arena, Wichita
Game Overview
Deontay Wilder, a former heavyweight champion renowned for his devastating punching power with 42 KOs in 48 wins, faces journeyman Tyrrell Anthony Herndon in a 10-round bout. Wilder, 39, seeks to re-establish himself after a string of losses including a brutal KO by Zhilei Zhang and defeats by Joseph Parker and Tyson Fury. Herndon, 37, has a respectable record but is considered a stepping stone opponent expected to be stopped early. The fight is significant as a potential resurgence moment for Wilder.
Key Factors to Consider
- Wilder has been inconsistent recently with only one win in his last five fights, relying heavily on knockout power. Herndon is a durable journeyman with 24 wins (15 KOs) but has lost to top competition and recently won a split decision in May 2024, showing resilience but lacking elite power.
- No previous fights between Wilder and Herndon; Wilder holds a clear advantage in pedigree, power, and experience at the world level.
- No reported injuries affecting either fighter ahead of the match.
- The fight takes place at Charles Koch Arena in Wichita, providing a neutral venue with no home advantage. Wilder is highly motivated to stage a comeback after recent defeats.
- Wilder is motivated to regain heavyweight title contender status and silence critics after recent losses, while Herndon is motivated by the opportunity to upset a former champion and gain recognition.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Deontay Wilder: -2500, Tyrrell Anthony Herndon: 1000 | Deontay Wilder to win | ★★★★★ 95% |
| Spread | Deontay Wilder: -4.5, Tyrrell Anthony Herndon: +4.5 | Wilder to win by more than 4.5 rounds | ★★★★★ 90% |
| Over/under | Over 5.5 rounds: 1.85, Under 5.5 rounds: 1.95 | Under 5.5 rounds (early stoppage likely) | ★★★★☆ 85% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Deontay Wilder -99% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.
Predicted Outcome
Deontay Wilder is heavily favored to win, likely by an early stoppage knockout given his punching power and Herndon's status as a journeyman who has struggled against elite fighters. The probability of Wilder winning is very high, with low chances for an upset by Herndon.
Predicted Score: Wilder wins by TKO in round 3