Match Analysis: Elise Reed vs Denise Gomes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-17
- Time: 9:10 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Vegas 106 (Venue unspecified)
Game Overview
This UFC Strawweight prelims fight features Elise Reed vs Denise Gomes, scheduled for May 17, 2025, at 21:10 UTC. Elise Reed is known for her crisp technique and fluid movement, while Denise Gomes thrives on an aggressive pace. Gomes holds a UFC record of 4-2 with an overall 10-3, and Reed has a UFC record of 4-4 with an overall 8-4. The bout is expected to be a dynamic clash of styles with Gomes as the betting favorite.
Key Factors to Consider
- Denise Gomes has showcased a strong UFC performance with a 4-2 record, improving recently to 4-1 in UFC fights. Elise Reed has struggled to maintain consistency with a 4-4 UFC record, although her technique is highly regarded. Gomes’ aggressive style contrasts with Reed's technical and movement-based approach.
- This is the first professional meeting between Denise Gomes and Elise Reed with no previous head-to-head records available.
- No reported current injuries for either fighter ahead of the bout.
- The fight is on UFC prelims card at UFC Vegas, which does not imply significant external pressure. Both fighters are motivated to improve rankings in the Strawweight division.
- Denise Gomes seeks to build momentum after solid UFC performances, while Elise Reed aims to rebound from mixed results and prove her skill set at the UFC level.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Denise Gomes: -600, Elise Reed: +440 | Denise Gomes | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Denise Gomes: -3.5 -205, Elise Reed: +3.5 +150 | Denise Gomes -3.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -188, Under 2.5: +145 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Denise Gomes -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 47% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 47% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Denise Gomes is favored to win due to her aggressive style, stronger UFC recent form, and favorable odds. The fight may end before the final round given Gomes’ power and pace.
Predicted Score: Denise Gomes wins by TKO or decision before 3 rounds