Match Analysis: Deiveson Figueiredo vs Montel Jackson – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-11
- Time: 1:15 AM UTC
- Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Game Overview
The bantamweight UFC main card bout features former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo facing rising contender Montel Jackson. Figueiredo, known for his aggressive style and finishing ability, is returning from injury but carries wear from past wars. Jackson utilizes a significant reach advantage and is on a four-fight winning streak, using his range and technical striking to control opponents.
Key Factors to Consider
- Figueiredo has a record of 24-5-1 with a striking accuracy of 54% landing 2.82 significant strikes per minute but allowing 3.64 strikes against him. Jackson holds a 15-2 record, landing 3.22 significant strikes per minute with 53% accuracy while allowing only 1.39 strikes and defending 62% of incoming strikes, indicating better defensive skills and reach advantage.
- No direct previous head-to-head encounters between Figueiredo and Jackson have been recorded, making this match a fresh tactical challenge for both.
- Figueiredo is returning from injury, which may affect his explosiveness and endurance. Jackson does not report recent injuries and appears physically fresh, which could provide an edge.
- The fight takes place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, potentially offering Figueiredo a home advantage but also raising pressure. Jackson's reach and southpaw stance pose strategic challenges in this venue setting.
- Figueiredo aims to reaffirm his status after recent setbacks and injuries, seeking a strong finish in his career. Jackson is motivated to continue a rising trajectory with a fourth consecutive win, possibly propelling him into title contention.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Deiveson Figueiredo: +235, Montel Jackson: -290 | Montel Jackson | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Deiveson Figueiredo: -110 (3.5), Montel Jackson: -120 (-3.5) | Montel Jackson to cover -3.5 spread | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over: -195 (2.5 rounds), Under: +150 (2.5 rounds) | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Montel Jackson -9% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 63% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 63% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 41.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Montel Jackson by KO/TKO given his range control, defensive ability, and physical freshness against an aging Figueiredo returning from injury. Jackson is favored to capitalize on reach and technical striking to secure a decisive win.
Predicted Score: Montel Jackson wins by TKO in Round 2