Match Analysis: Dean Garnett vs Jan Cieplowski – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-26
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: PFL Europe 3, Nantes

Game Overview

This PFL Europe 3 matchup features Jan Cieplowski favored to defeat Dean Garnett with strong odds reflecting his recent form and skill advantage. Garnett enters as the underdog with respectable but lesser betting support.

Key Factors to Consider

• Jan Cieplowski has a solid recent record with multiple wins in the PFL and Armia Fight Night promotions, consistently favored by bookmakers (odds around -260 to -350). Dean Garnett shows competitive fight readiness but with less consistent notable victories and thus longer odds (+185 to +225).
• No direct recorded head-to-head bouts, so analysis relies on form, styles, and career progression.
• No public injury reports on either fighter prior to the bout, indicating both are likely at full fitness.
• The fight location in Nantes, France (PFL Europe 3 event) favors neither fighter geographically as both have fought internationally. No distractions or motivation impairments reported.
• Both fighters are motivated to secure wins in a high-profile PFL Europe event, with Cieplowski slightly favored due to recent upward trajectory and reputation in European MMA.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jan Cieplowski -280, Dean Garnett +205	Jan Cieplowski	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Jan Cieplowski -1.5 rounds -140, Dean Garnett +1.5 rounds +110	Jan Cieplowski -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Under 2.5 rounds -120, Over 2.5 rounds +100	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 62%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 100% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jan Cieplowski to win on the moneyline, covering the spread and the fight going under the projected total rounds.

Predicted Score: Jan Cieplowski wins via submission or TKO in Round 2

Match Analysis: Dean Garnett vs Tuomas Gronvall – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-05
• Time: 3:00 PM UTC
• Location: ING Arena, Brussels

Game Overview

The fight between Dean Garnett and Tuomas Gronvall is set for July 5, 2025, at PFL Europe 2, taking place in Brussels at the ING Arena. Both fighters have solid MMA records with Garnett at 12-3-1 and Gronvall at 12-8-1. Garnett, a 36-year-old English fighter, brings a balanced striking and finishing style including 4 KOs and 1 submission; Gronvall, 31 years old from Finland, is recognized for his relentless grappling and pace, favoring submissions (6) and decisions (5). The bout is anticipated to be competitive given their contrasting approaches and experience levels.

Key Factors to Consider

• Dean Garnett has a slightly better win-loss record and more KO wins, indicating stronger striking. Tuomas Gronvall has more submission wins, suggesting a grappling advantage. Both fighters have extensive experience though Garnett's recent form appears solid, while Gronvall is known for pace and pressure.
• No official previous matchups found between Garnett and Gronvall indicating a fresh contest without direct past outcome influence.
• No reported injuries for either fighter. Alex Luster's withdrawal led to Gronvall stepping in, which may affect his preparation but no injury concerns have been indicated.
• Fighting in Brussels at ING Arena, Gronvall's home country Finland is different from the venue, while Garnett is fighting away from his UK base. The PFL Europe atmosphere and card strength could motivate both fighters.
• Gronvall, stepping in due to another's withdrawal, will be eager to seize this opportunity at a major PFL Europe event. Garnett is motivated to maintain his winning momentum and secure position in the tournament.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Dean Garnett: -400, Tuomas Gronvall: 250	Dean Garnett	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Dean Garnett -1.5 rounds: -150, Tuomas Gronvall +1.5 rounds: 130	Dean Garnett -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: 110, Under 2.5 rounds: -130	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Dean Garnett -99%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Dean Garnett is favored to win due to his superior striking, finishing ability, and current odds advantage. However, Gronvall's grappling and relentless pressure poses a credible threat to turn the fight in his favor, making it a challenging but likely Garnett victory.

Predicted Score: Dean Garnett wins by unanimous decision or late stoppage within 3 rounds

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Patrick Habirora vs. Danny Roberts Prediction	Under 1.5 rounds	-190	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Dean Garnett vs. Tuomas Gronvall Prediction	Dean Garnett Win	-400	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Taylor Lapilus vs. Ali Taleb Prediction	Taylor Lapilus Win	-230	★★★★☆ 72% (72%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +174

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $54.75