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Match Analysis: Attila Korkmaz vs David Tonatiuh Crol – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-20
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Festhalle
Game Overview
The match between Attila Korkmaz and David Tonatiuh Crol is a lightweight division fight featured on the main card of OKTAGON 76. Both fighters have comparable professional records, with Korkmaz at 15-10 and Crol at 11-10, each possessing knockout and submission victories. The fight is scheduled for three rounds and will showcase their striking and grappling skills in the UFC Lightweight class.
Key Factors to Consider
- Attila Korkmaz, aged 34 with a slight reach advantage (173 cm vs. 170 cm), has a balanced record with 3 KOs, 3 submissions, and 5 decision wins. David Tonatiuh Crol, aged 28, relies more heavily on submissions (7) but also has KO and decision wins. Both fighters show durability with no draws and similar loss counts. Korkmaz's experience might play a key role given his older age and number of fights.
- There is no publicly available direct head-to-head record between Korkmaz and Crol prior to this bout.
- No reported injuries affecting either fighter leading up to the match.
- The bout takes place at the Festhalle venue under the OKTAGON MMA promotion. No additional external influences such as weather or travel impacts are noted.
- Both fighters seek to improve their standings in the lightweight division. Korkmaz may be motivated by experience and veteran status, while Crol offers youthful aggression and submission prowess.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Attila Korkmaz: -350, David Tonatiuh Crol: +240 | Attila Korkmaz | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Attila Korkmaz -1.5: -110, David Tonatiuh Crol +1.5: -110 | Attila Korkmaz -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -120, Under 2.5 rounds: +100 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Attila Korkmaz is favored to win this fight by a close margin due to his greater experience, reach advantage, and well-rounded skill set compared to David Tonatiuh Crol's submission-oriented approach. However, Crol's youth and submission power keep him competitive.
Predicted Score: Attila Korkmaz wins by submission in Round 2