Match Analysis: David Mgoyan vs Tommy McMillen – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-03
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Game Overview
David Mgoyan and Tommy McMillen face off in a highly competitive and closely matched featherweight bout at Dana White's Contender Series. Both fighters enter undefeated, with Mgoyan holding a 7-0 record and McMillen an 8-0 record. The matchup features contrasting styles and physical advantages that set the stage for a compelling contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- Mgoyan boasts a well-rounded skill set and younger age (21 vs 27), but has been somewhat tentative and made questionable decisions in cages. McMillen has a perfect first-round finish streak and aggressive style, leveraging an 8-0 run and a wrestling base with submission prowess reflecting 5 submission wins.
- This is their first meeting with no prior head-to-head data. Both fighters present high finishing rates and similar career stages, though McMillen has more submission victories, and Mgoyan shows more knockout power.
- McMillen previously suffered an AC joint separation that postponed his UFC Contender appearance last year but has since recovered fully and remained active with one fight since then. Mgoyan has no reported injuries.
- The fight occurs at the UFC Apex, with McMillen having strong local motivation as a Montana native making his UFC-related debut. Mgoyan is a late replacement with only a few weeks notice but is highly motivated to prove his ceiling.
- McMillen has expressed strong motivation to stop the recent overseas dominance in the UFC featherweight division and secure a UFC contract on home soil. Mgoyan seeks to maintain his undefeated streak and prove his potential as a rising prospect.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | David Mgoyan: -194, Tommy McMillen: 169 | Tommy McMillen | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Tommy McMillen -1.5: +150, David Mgoyan +1.5: -180 | Tommy McMillen -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5: -153, Under 1.5: 133 | Over 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | David Mgoyan 56% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 1.5 4% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: David Mgoyan at 56% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 33.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tommy McMillen to win by submission
Predicted Score: Tommy McMillen wins by submission in round 2