Match Analysis: Rob Font vs David Martinez – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-14
• Time: 12:10 AM UTC
• Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio

Game Overview

Rob Font, a veteran UFC bantamweight with a 22-8 record, faces David Martinez, a younger and less experienced fighter at 12-1, on short notice at UFC Noche 3. Font is physically bigger with a longer reach, while Martinez shows a higher significant strike accuracy and better strike defense. The bout features a classic experienced fighter versus rising prospect dynamic.

Key Factors to Consider

• Rob Font maintains considerable experience advantage with 22 wins and well-rounded finishes by KO and submission, showing durability (8 losses) and solidity in fights. David Martinez, younger with a 12-1 record, enters as a strong striker with higher strike accuracy (52%) and better defense, but limited UFC experience with only his second official bout.
• No official previous bouts between Rob Font and David Martinez, making this their first encounter.
• No reported injuries for either fighter. Martinez is a short-notice replacement after Font's original opponent pulled out due to injury.
• Font has navigated multiple opponent changes before and is accustomed to short-notice bouts. Martinez carries strong national pride representing Mexico and aggressively seeks to make a statement, increasing his motivation. The event's location in San Antonio at the Frost Bank Center is neutral ground with no clear home advantage.
• Font motivated by familiarity with sudden opponent changes and aiming to catch young talent early. Martinez highly motivated by representing Mexico and proving himself in UFC with limited experience.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	David Martinez: 110, Rob Font: -130	Rob Font	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	David Martinez: 3.5 -230, Rob Font: -3.5 165	Rob Font to cover -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -315, Under 2.5: 230	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Rob Font 1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Rob Font wins via decision or late-round technical knockout due to experience and physical advantages, though Martinez's accuracy and defense keep the fight competitive throughout.

Predicted Score: Rob Font wins by unanimous decision, 29-28 on all scorecards

Match Analysis: David Martinez vs Saimon Oliveira – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: Saturday, March 29, 2025
• Time: 11:45 PM UTC
• Location: Arena CDMX in Mexico City

Game Overview

David Martinez, the rising Mexican star known as 'Black Spartan,' faces off against Brazil's Saimon Oliveira in a Bantamweight matchup at UFC on ESPN 64. Martinez boasts an impressive record with 11 wins and only one loss, having recently secured a unanimous decision victory. Oliveira, with 18 wins and 5 losses, is coming off a knockout defeat. Both fighters have a history of fights ending inside the distance.

Key Factors to Consider

• Martinez is a heavy hitter with 9 wins by knockout. He averages 5.27 significant strikes per minute with a 49% striking accuracy. Oliveira has a more balanced skillset but has struggled in his recent UFC outings, averaging 2.82 significant strikes per minute with a 41% accuracy.
• There is no prior head-to-head matchup between Martinez and Oliveira. However, Martinez's aggressive striking style could challenge Oliveira's grappling-focused approach.
• No reported injuries affecting the fighters heading into this bout.
• The fight takes place in Mexico City, which could favor Martinez due to the home crowd support. However, Oliveira's international experience could mitigate this advantage.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Martinez looking to build on his success and Oliveira seeking redemption after a recent loss.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-410 for Martinez, +320 for Oliveira	Martinez	★★★★☆ 80%
Spread	-3.5 for Martinez -175, +3.5 for Oliveira +125	Martinez (-3.5)	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over_under	Over 2.5 -125, Under 2.5 -105	Over 2.5	★★★☆☆ 55%

Predicted Outcome

David Martinez is favored to win due to his superior striking and recent form.

Predicted Score: Given the nature of MMA fights, predicting an exact score is not applicable.