Match Analysis: David Allen vs Arslanbek Makhmudov – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-11
- Time: 9:00 PM UTC
- Location: Sheffield Arena, Sheffield, United Kingdom
Game Overview
Heavyweight bout between British fan-favorite Dave Allen and hard-hitting Arslanbek Makhmudov. Both are orthodox fighters with high knockout rates, but Makhmudov holds significant size and reach advantages. The fight is scheduled for 12 rounds, with no weight limit, and will be broadcast live on DAZN worldwide[1][2].
Key Factors to Consider
- Makhmudov boasts a higher knockout percentage (95% vs. Allen’s 79%) and a slightly superior record (20-2-0 vs. 24-7-2), but has fought fewer total rounds, suggesting a lower workrate and possibly less experience in deep waters. Allen has more ring miles and is ranked #8 by the WBA[2].
- No previous meetings between the two. Makhmudov’s power is the X-factor, while Allen’s experience and grit in tough fights could be decisive if he survives the early onslaught[2].
- No public injury reports for either fighter. Both appear to be healthy going into the bout.
- Home crowd advantage for Allen at Sheffield, but he’s considered the underdog by the oddsmakers. The fight is live on DAZN, which could motivate both to put on a show[1][2].
- Allen is seeking to prove he belongs with top heavyweights in possibly his last big domestic opportunity. Makhmudov is aiming to reassert himself after recent setbacks and boost his profile internationally[2].
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Makhmudov -105, Allen -125 | Makhmudov to win | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 6.5 -125, Under 6.5 -105 | Under 6.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arslanbek Makhmudov 7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 6.5 17% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 6.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Makhmudov enters as the favorite due to power and physical advantages, but Allen’s toughness, experience, and home crowd could make this closer than the odds suggest. Bookmakers give Makhmudov a 53% chance and Allen a 47% chance, showing only a slight edge for the Russian[1]. Expect a violent, competitive fight, but Makhmudov’s early power is the likeliest decisive factor.
Predicted Score: Makhmudov wins by TKO/KO in rounds 4-6[2]