Match Analysis: Davey Grant vs Charles Jourdain – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-18
• Time: 8:00 PM UTC
• Location: Rogers Arena, Vancouver, BC

Game Overview

A high-stakes bantamweight bout between two aggressive, well-rounded strikers: Charles Jourdain (16-8-1, -166 moneyline favorite) looks to extend his momentum after a successful bantamweight debut, while Davey Grant (17-7-0, +140) arrives with a 4-1 run in his last five, including a recent decision win over Da'Mon Blackshear[1][2]. Both fighters have nearly identical reach, but Jourdain is the bigger volume striker with a slight edge in accuracy and defense[1].

Key Factors to Consider

• Jourdain lands 5.43 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy, absorbs 4.27, and defends 56% of strikes. Grant lands 5.18/minute at 44%, absorbs 3.74, and defends 55%. Jourdain's recent bantamweight debut was a win, while Grant is 4-1 in his last five, with his only loss in that span to a top-ranked opponent[1][2].
• No prior matchups.
• No recent injury news reported for either fighter.
• Fight takes place in Vancouver, Canada—Jourdain's home country, but not a decisive home-cage advantage. No major external factors reported.
• Jourdain is looking to establish himself at bantamweight after a promising debut. Grant, at 39, may be fighting to maintain relevance near the end of his career but has shown consistent form and durability.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jourdain -166, Grant +140	Jourdain	★★★☆☆ 63%
Spread	Jourdain -3.5 +110, Grant +3.5 -150	Grant +3.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 2.5 -210, Under 2.5 +160	Over 2.5	★★★★☆ 72%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Charles Jourdain -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Expect a technical standup battle with Jourdain's superior volume, youth, and recent divisional success giving him a narrow edge, but Grant's toughness, experience, and recent form make him a live underdog. Fight goes the distance at bantamweight pace.

Predicted Score: Charles Jourdain def. Davey Grant via Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Match Analysis: Da'Mon Blackshear vs Davey Grant – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-26
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi

Game Overview

Da'Mon Blackshear and Davey Grant meet at UFC Abu Dhabi in a bantamweight bout where Blackshear enters as a strong favorite based on recent odds and performance metrics. The fight is expected to be competitive but with a likely finish under 3 rounds.

Key Factors to Consider

• Blackshear (16-7) has a slight edge in significant strikes landed per minute (4.70) versus Grant (5.25) but lands a higher percentage (46% vs 44%). Grant also has better strike defense (55% deflection vs Blackshear 52%). Both fighters show durability with similar strikes absorbed per minute.
• No direct historical matchup between the two, making form and style matchup key in analysis.
• No reported injuries to either fighter leading into the bout, suggesting both are at full capacity physically.
• Fighting at home-favored venue Abu Dhabi's Etihad Arena may favor Blackshear with crowd support. The pressure to perform as the heavy favorite may affect Blackshear's approach.
• Blackshear is motivated to justify favorite billing and progress in rankings, while Grant, as underdog, may seek an upset to revitalize career momentum.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Da'Mon Blackshear: -330, Davey Grant: +270	Da'Mon Blackshear	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Not listed explicitly; implied -1.5 rounds favoring Blackshear	Blackshear -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under	Over 2.5 -130, Under 2.5 +100	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 57%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Da'Mon Blackshear -13%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 14%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Da'Mon Blackshear to win by decision

Predicted Score: Da'Mon Blackshear wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Daniel Santos vs Davey Grant – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-05
• Time: 12:15 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

This matchup between Daniel Santos and Davey Grant promises to be highly competitive, with both fighters seeking to assert their dominance in the bantamweight division. Both fighters are known for their aggressive styles, which could result in a closely contested bout.

Key Factors to Consider

• Daniel Santos has a strong background in Chute Boxe's aggressive fighting style, with a record of 12-2-0. Davey Grant brings an unorthodox fighting approach, having compiled a record of 16-7-0. Both fighters have shown resilience in their recent performances, with Grant winning his last bout via unanimous decision.
• There are no direct head-to-head matches between Daniel Santos and Davey Grant to draw upon.
• No reported injuries that could significantly impact either fighter's performance at the time of this analysis.
• The fight will take place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a familiar venue for both fighters, potentially reducing external influences on the bout's outcome.
• Both fighters are highly motivated to secure a win, with Santos seeking to build momentum after a long layoff and Grant aiming to continue his recent success.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Santos: -148, Grant: +124	Daniel Santos	★★★☆☆ 58%
Spread	Santos: -3.5 +110, Grant: +3.5 -150	Daniel Santos	★★☆☆☆ 45%
Over_under	Over 2.5: -200, Under 2.5: +154	Over 2.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Daniel Santos is favored to win due to his aggressive style and recent performance improvements.

Predicted Score: Decision win for Daniel Santos