Match Analysis: Darragh Kelly vs Bakhtiyar Abdulaev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-26
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: PFL Event Venue (Exact venue not specified)

Game Overview

This lightweight bout in the 2025 PFL season features Darragh Kelly, an undefeated Irish fighter known as "The Moville Mauler," against Bakhtiyar Abdulaev. Kelly holds an 8-0 career record and is currently 1-0 in PFL, demonstrating strong submission and decision wins recently. Abdulaev's detailed fight record is not available in the provided data, but betting odds strongly favor Kelly.

Key Factors to Consider

• Darragh Kelly has displayed consistent dominance with multiple submission finishes and decisions in high-profile promotions like Bellator and PFL, maintaining an undefeated record. His recent fights show strong grappling and conditioning under SB Ireland team. Abdulaev's performance data is limited, making Kelly's known strengths a substantial advantage.
• No direct head-to-head records between Darragh Kelly and Bakhtiyar Abdulaev are documented in the provided data.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the bout.
• The fight is part of the PFL 2025 season where Kelly is aiming to maintain his unbeaten streak. Kelly's motivation is high after submitting Mike Hamel in the semifinals earlier this year. Abdulaev's external motivation and background information are not detailed in the current data.
• Kelly appears strongly motivated and confident, coming off a submission win in the PFL semifinals. Abdulaev's motivation level is unclear due to limited available information.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Darragh Kelly: -650, Bakhtiyar Abdulaev: 440	Darragh Kelly to win	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Darragh Kelly: -1.5, Bakhtiyar Abdulaev: +1.5	Darragh Kelly by more than 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: Even, Under 2.5 rounds: Even	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Darragh Kelly -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Darragh Kelly at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Darragh Kelly is predicted to win by submission or decision given his undefeated record, grappling proficiency, and superior fight experience in major promotions. Abdulaev is an underdog despite the odds, but limited data on him reduces confidence in his chances.

Predicted Score: Darragh Kelly wins by submission in round 3

Match Analysis: Darragh Kelly vs Mike Hamel – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: June 20, 2025
• Time: 9:30 PM UTC
• Location: INTRUST Bank Arena, Wichita, KS

Game Overview

Darragh Kelly, an undefeated MMA fighter, faces Mike Hamel, a veteran with a 11-6 record, in a pivotal bout at the PFL World Tournament 6. Kelly, known as the 'Moville Mauler,' seeks to extend his winning streak, while Hamel looks to bounce back from inactivity.

Key Factors to Consider

• Darragh Kelly is undefeated with a 7-0 professional record, while Mike Hamel has a more mixed record with 11 wins and 6 losses.
• No previous head-to-head matches between the two fighters.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• Kelly's first fight in the U.S. and under the PFL banner could bring added pressure. Hamel's inactivity might affect his performance.
• Both fighters are motivated to win, with the potential for significant career advancement.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Darragh Kelly: -265, Mike Hamel: 205	Darragh Kelly	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Darragh Kelly -99%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Darragh Kelly is favored to win due to his undefeated record and consistent performance.

Predicted Score: Darragh Kelly by unanimous decision

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Nick Meck vs. Alan Domínguez Prediction	Nick Meck Win	-240	★★★★☆ 70% (70%)
Darragh Kelly vs. Mike Hamel Prediction	Darragh Kelly Win	-265	★★★★☆ 70% (70%)
Justin Wetzell vs. Mando Gutierrez Prediction	Justin Wetzell Win	-201	★★★☆☆ 65% (65%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +192

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $58.44