Match Analysis: Dario Bellandi vs Claudio Ribeiro – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-04
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Rome

Game Overview

Middleweight (185lbs) title fight for Cage Warriors 195, five rounds. Bellandi (Italy, 9-1-0) is a rising contender with strong recent form and a well-rounded skill set. Ribeiro (Brazil, 13-6-0) is a tough, experienced striker but has shown inconsistency against top grappling pressure.

Key Factors to Consider

• Bellandi has won recent bouts and shown durability and composure under pressure, with a 5-round decision win in his last title fight. Ribeiro has faced tougher UFC-level competition but has struggled against wrestlers and strong athletic grapplers.
• First professional meeting.
• No significant injuries reported for either fighter as of the fight date.
• Bellandi fights at home, which may provide a cardio and crowd advantage in the championship rounds.
• Both fighters are highly motivated—Bellandi aiming to cement himself as CW’s top local star, Ribeiro seeking redemption after a tough UFC stint.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -135, away: 115	Dario Bellandi by decision (moneyline)	Not available
Over/under	over: -165, under: 145	Over 1.5 rounds	Not available

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Dario Bellandi 13%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Dario Bellandi at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Bellandi’s grappling, cardio, and hometown edge present significant stylistic challenges for Ribeiro, who struggles when pressured by strong wrestlers.

Predicted Score: Bellandi defeats Ribeiro by unanimous decision (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)

Match Analysis: Dario Bellandi vs Naglis Kanisauskas – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-08
• Time: 7:30 PM UTC
• Location: The PalaPellicone, Rome, Italy

Game Overview

Dario Bellandi defends his middleweight title against Naglis Kanisauskas in a rematch at CW 183. Bellandi, with a grappling background, seeks his second title defense, while Kanisauskas aims to avenge his previous loss.

Key Factors to Consider

• Bellandi has won six consecutive fights, including three by decision. Kanisauskas has been impressive since his loss to Bellandi, finishing two fights quickly.
• Bellandi won their first encounter via unanimous decision in July 2023.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight takes place in Bellandi's home country, Italy, which could provide an advantage.
• Kanisauskas is highly motivated to avenge his loss, while Bellandi seeks to prove his title reign is not a fluke.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-300 for Bellandi, +220 for Kanisauskas	Bellandi	★★★★☆ 70%

Predicted Outcome

Dario Bellandi to win.

Predicted Score: Bellandi wins by decision.