Match Analysis: Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: July 19, 2025
• Time: 2:00 AM UTC
• Location: N/A

Game Overview

Kevin Holland faces Daniel Rodriguez in a highly anticipated middleweight bout at UFC 318. Holland is favored due to his aggressive fighting style and recent performances, while Rodriguez is looking to upset with his heavy-hitting power.

Key Factors to Consider

• Kevin Holland enters this fight with a strong record, known for his ability to finish fights with both strikes and submissions. Daniel Rodriguez recently defeated Santiago Ponzinibbio via TKO, demonstrating his formidable knockout power.
• There is no prior H2H matchup between these fighters, making this contest unpredictable.
• No reported injuries for either fighter as of the latest updates.
• Fan support and the pressure of a high-profile event may impact performance.
• Both fighters are motivated to win, with Holland aiming to climb the rankings and Rodriguez seeking an upset victory.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Kevin Holland: -575, Daniel Rodriguez: +425	Kevin Holland	★★★★☆ 81%
Spread	Daniel Rodriguez: 3.5 +175, Kevin Holland: -3.5 -245	Kevin Holland	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5: +130, Under 2.5: -166	Under 2.5	★★★☆☆ 58%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Kevin Holland -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 -7%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Kevin Holland at -5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Kevin Holland to win by decision.

Predicted Score: Holland via Decision

Match Analysis: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Daniel Rodriguez – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: May 3, 2025
• Time: 3:45 AM UTC
• Location: Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, IA

Game Overview

This welterweight bout at UFC Des Moines pits Santiago Ponzinibbio against Daniel Rodriguez. Both fighters have impressive records, with Ponzinibbio at 31-8-0 and Rodriguez at 18-5-0, making it a closely contested match.

Key Factors to Consider

• Ponzinibbio lands 4.80 significant strikes per minute with 41% accuracy, while Rodriguez lands 7.50 strikes per minute with 49% accuracy, giving Rodriguez an edge in striking. Ponzinibbio absorbs 4.61 strikes per minute, defending 61%, whereas Rodriguez takes 5.47 and defends 58%, indicating a slightly better defense for Ponzinibbio.
• No previous head-to-head matches between these fighters have been reported, making this a first-time encounter.
• No significant injury reports for either fighter leading up to this match.
• The crowd might slightly favor Rodriguez due to his recent performances, but Ponzinibbio's experience could counterbalance this.
• Both fighters are highly motivated to win, as this is a crucial match in their careers.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-110 for both fighters	Rodriguez	★★★☆☆ 55%
Spread	-3.5 for Rodriguez and +3.5 for Ponzinibbio	Take Ponzinibbio +3.5 due to the potential for a close fight	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -238, Under 2.5 rounds: 180	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Daniel Rodriguez 5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Daniel Rodriguez at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

This fight is closely matched, but Rodriguez's higher strike rate might give him an edge in a decision victory.

Predicted Score: Decision victory for Daniel Rodriguez