Match Analysis: Charlie Radtke vs Daniel Frunza – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-01
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada

Game Overview

Welterweight bout between Charles Radtke (10-5, 3-2 UFC) and Daniel Frunza (9-3, 0-1 UFC), both coming off knockout losses. Radtke is a pressure grappler with powerful striking, while Frunza is a volume striker with durability and forward pressure. Both fighters are aggressive, but Radtke holds a notable grappling edge.

Key Factors to Consider

• Radtke lands 3.11 significant strikes per minute at 49% accuracy, Frunza at 6.30 per minute at 40%. Radtke absorbs 3.66 strikes/min, Frunza absorbs 6.67/min. Radtke defends 52% of significant strikes, Frunza 56%. Radtke can mix wrestling, Frunza is vulnerable to takedowns and controlled on the ground[1][2].
• No prior head-to-head meetings.
• Both fighters are returning from KO losses; no additional injuries reported.
• UFC Apex cage, no crowd, standard athletic commissions in place[1].
• Bouncing back from losses raises urgency for both; Radtke’s grappling advantage may dictate the fight’s flow.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Radtke: -170 | Frunza: +142	Radtke to win by decision or late submission	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	Radtke: -3.5 (-105) | Frunza: +3.5 (-125)	Radtke covers -3.5 spread by controlling rounds with grappling	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 1.5: -140 | Under 1.5: +110	Over 1.5 rounds favored due to Frunza's toughness and Radtke's tendency to slow rounds with wrestling	★★★★☆ 80%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Charlie Radtke 50%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 23%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Charlie Radtke at 50% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Charles Radtke is favored due to his superior grappling and ability to dictate where the fight takes place, though Frunza’s durability and striking volume present a danger if Radtke cannot impose his wrestling. Expect a competitive but tactical fight with Radtke utilizing takedowns and top control to either grind out a decision or find a submission late[2].

Predicted Score: Charles Radtke by Submission (Round 3) or Unanimous Decision

Match Analysis: Rhys McKee vs Daniel Frunza – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-05
• Time: 11:45 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

Rhys McKee enters this match with a record of 13-6-1, while Daniel Frunza holds a record of 9-2-0. This welterweight bout will feature both fighters looking to improve their standing in the division, with McKee coming off a split decision loss and Frunza coming off a knockout victory.

Key Factors to Consider

• McKee has a higher average fight time of 12:02 compared to Frunza's 8:30, indicating his ability to endure longer bouts. McKee lands 4.80 significant strikes per minute with a 45% accuracy rate, whereas Frunza lands 4.94 significant strikes per minute with a 44% accuracy. McKee's defense is weaker, allowing 7.85 strikes per minute, while Frunza allows only 5.53.
• This will be the first meeting between Rhys McKee and Daniel Frunza, making their head-to-head record non-existent. Both fighters have shown distinct strengths, with McKee having more experience and Frunza showing strong finishing ability.
• There are no reported injuries for either fighter leading up to this match. Both are coming into the fight healthy, which is crucial for performance.
• The fight will take place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a venue familiar to both fighters. Home crowd advantage may slightly favor McKee, but both are professional and accustomed to the pressure of live events.
• McKee is motivated to bounce back from his recent loss and prove his abilities in the octagon, while Frunza aims to build on his winning streak. Both fighters have much at stake in terms of career progression.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Rhys McKee: +130, Daniel Frunza: -150	Daniel Frunza to win	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Rhys McKee: +50, Daniel Frunza: -0.5	Daniel Frunza to cover the spread	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over 2.5: -110, Under 2.5: -120	Fight to go over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Daniel Frunza is favored to win, given his recent performance and slightly better statistics in striking. However, McKee's experience and reach advantage may level the playing field.

Predicted Score: Frunza 29, McKee 28