Match Analysis: Mantas Kondratavicius vs Dani Barbir – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-24
- Time: 1:55 AM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, USA
Game Overview
The main event at Dana White’s Contender Series Season 9 Week 7 features undefeated Croatian Dani Barbir (7-0) taking on Lithuanian Mantas Kondratavicius (7-1). Both middleweights are known for striking with finishing capabilities. Barbir has proven championship pedigree regionally but withdrew from a recent fight due to injury, raising minor concerns. Kondratavicius, meanwhile, is on a two-fight win streak and boasts a kickboxing background, giving him an edge in striking variety and clinch work. The fight is scheduled for three five-minute rounds.
Key Factors to Consider
- Barbir is undefeated at 7-0 with a strong regional championship background, but has a recent withdrawal due to injury. Kondratavicius has a 7-1 record with four KOs and recently won two straight fights, including a quick stoppage in March 2025, highlighting his finishing ability and experience against durable opponents.
- No prior head-to-head matchup between these fighters.
- Barbir withdrew from a May 2025 bout against Piotr Strus due to injury, causing some question marks about his current physical state. Kondratavicius has no disclosed recent injuries and appears fight-ready.
- The bout takes place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a neutral site but a high-pressure environment with a UFC contract on the line, adding motivation. Barbir fights near home in Croatia regionally but is facing a distinctly higher level here.
- Both fighters are highly motivated to secure a UFC contract. Barbir tries to maintain his perfect record and capitalize on his championship pedigree, while Kondratavicius aims to spoil the undefeated run and build his resume with a high-profile KO/TKO win.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dani Barbir: -133, Mantas Kondratavicius: +113 | Mantas Kondratavicius | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Spread | Mantas Kondratavicius -1.5: +250, Dani Barbir +1.5: -300 | Mantas Kondratavicius -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 rounds: +157, Under 1.5 rounds: -180 | Under 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dani Barbir 11% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 -11% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Dani Barbir at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Mantas Kondratavicius to win by KO/TKO
Predicted Score: Mantas Kondratavicius wins via KO/TKO Round 1-2