Match Analysis: Mantas Kondratavicius vs Dani Barbir – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-24
- Time: 1:55 AM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Game Overview
The middleweight matchup between undefeated Dani Barbir (7-0 MMA) and Mantas Kondratavicius (7-1 MMA) is the main event of Dana White's Contender Series Season 9, Week 7. Both fighters are skilled strikers, with Barbir known for his submission skills and Kondratavicius for his striking variety and clinch work. The fight is scheduled for three 5-minute rounds. Kondratavicius is currently on a two-fight winning streak and looks to hand Barbir his first professional loss, which could significantly boost his career prospects.
Key Factors to Consider
- Barbir remains undefeated with a strong regional championship defense in Croatia, showing solid grappling via submissions. Kondratavicius has a solid recent form (4-1 last five fights) highlighted by a quick knockout in March 2025, demonstrating power striking and clinch effectiveness.
- No previous head-to-head fights between Dani Barbir and Mantas Kondratavicius have been recorded.
- Barbir withdrew from a previous fight in May 2025 due to injury, but no current injury concerns have been reported for either fighter ahead of the match.
- The fight takes place at UFC Apex, a neutral site. Both fighters motivated by the prospect of securing a UFC contract. Barbir's untested chin and cardio, along with Kondratavicius' lone loss experience, are notable external considerations impacting mental and physical readiness.
- Barbir is motivated to maintain his undefeated record and potentially earn a UFC contract, while Kondratavicius looks to build his resume and break Barbir's undefeated streak, increasing his own chances for UFC promotion.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dani Barbir: -133, Mantas Kondratavicius: 113 | Mantas Kondratavicius to win | ★★★☆☆ 67% |
| Spread | Mantas Kondratavicius -1.5: Unavailable, Dani Barbir +1.5: Unavailable | Mantas Kondratavicius by more than 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5: 157, Under 1.5: -180 | Under 1.5 rounds (fight likely to end in early rounds) | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dani Barbir 19% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Dani Barbir at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Mantas Kondratavicius is predicted to win by KO/TKO, leveraging his superior striking variety and clinch work to exploit Barbir's tendency to absorb damage.
Predicted Score: Mantas Kondratavicius wins by KO/TKO in Round 1 or early Round 2