Match Analysis: Heili Alateng vs Da'Mon Blackshear – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-26
- Time: 11:45 PM UTC
- Location: Kansas City, Missouri, United States
Game Overview
The Bantamweight bout between Heili Alateng and Da'Mon Blackshear at UFC Fight Night promises a competitive matchup. Alateng, known as 'The Mongolian Knight', is a fighter with a balanced record of 17-9-2, bringing a mixture of striking power and submission capability with 5 KOs and 3 subs. Blackshear, 'The Monster', holds a 16-7-1 record and is known for his submission skills, having secured 10 submission wins compared to fewer knockouts. Standing taller and with longer reach, Blackshear could use his physical attributes for control, while Alateng’s aggressive striking and experience make him a dangerous opponent. The odds favor Blackshear but the contest could hinge on stylistic execution in striking and grappling exchanges.
Key Factors to Consider
- Blackshear has a UFC record of 4-3-1 and a career record of 16-7-1, showing solid performance with a preference and success in submissions. Alateng's UFC record is 5-2-1 with an overall 17-9-2, showing a more balanced attack with knockouts and submissions, indicating versatility. Both fighters have recent wins and losses, but Blackshear’s submission game and physical reach offer an advantage.
- There is no direct head-to-head history between Heili Alateng and Da'Mon Blackshear, making this their first professional fight against each other.
- No reported injuries or health concerns for either fighter ahead of the match, suggesting both will be at full strength.
- The fight takes place in Kansas City, Missouri, a neutral site with no significant home advantage. Both fighters weigh in close to the Bantamweight limit with no reported issues.
- Both fighters are seasoned UFC competitors motivated to climb the Bantamweight rankings. Blackshear’s grappling style and recent form provide motivation to consolidate his position, while Alateng aims to leverage his striking and experience to secure a pivotal win.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Da'Mon Blackshear: -460, Heili Alateng: 360 | Da'Mon Blackshear | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | Over: -150, Under: 120 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Da'Mon Blackshear -10% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 32% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 32% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Da'Mon Blackshear favored to win due to superior grappling, physical advantages, and recent form, with potential for submission finish or decision. Alateng’s striking and resilience make an upset plausible but less likely.
Predicted Score: Blackshear wins by submission in round 2