Match Analysis: Dalton Rosta vs Aaron Jeffrey – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-28
- Time: 2:30 AM UTC
- Location: Wintrust Arena, Chicago, Illinois, United States
Game Overview
The PFL 2025 World Tournament Middleweight Semifinal between Dalton Rosta and Aaron Jeffery is a high-stakes rematch. Dalton Rosta, a highly explosive and technically evolved fighter known for his ground-and-pound and recent submission skills, seeks redemption after his sole career loss to Aaron Jeffery in 2023. Jeffery demonstrated superior takedown defense and clinch striking in their prior bout, neutralizing Rosta's aggressive style. This fight represents a crucial career milestone, with the winner advancing to contend for the world title.
Key Factors to Consider
- Dalton Rosta holds a strong 10-1 record, including a recent impressive submission win via brabo choke, showing growth and adaptability. Aaron Jeffery is experienced at 16-5, with excellent takedown defense and clinch control, having previously stopped Rosta's momentum effectively.
- In their 2023 matchup, Aaron Jeffery defeated Dalton Rosta by effectively defending takedowns and scoring points in the clinch. Rosta was undefeated then (8-0) but was outmaneuvered tactically by Jeffery.
- No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the June 28 fight, both appear fully prepared and in peak condition.
- The match is held at Wintrust Arena in Chicago, with both fighters motivated for a semifinal victory. Rosta is under pressure to avenge his only loss, while Jeffery aims to maintain his upper hand. The bout is a main card event with high visibility on ESPN and ESPN+.
- Dalton Rosta is highly motivated seeking redemption and progression toward a world title, reflected in his intensive preparation and recent improvements. Aaron Jeffery aims to prove his previous victory was no fluke and to advance to the finals, capitalizing on his tactical advantages.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dalton Rosta: +135, Aaron Jeffery: -160, Draw: +2500 | Dalton Rosta | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Spread | Dalton Rosta -1.5 rounds: +120, Aaron Jeffery +1.5 rounds: -140 | Dalton Rosta -1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -115, Under 2.5 rounds: -105 | Over 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Dalton Rosta is favored to win based on his evolution since their last fight and recent submission success, but Aaron Jeffery's superior takedown defense and clinch effectiveness ensure a highly competitive bout. The prediction leans toward Rosta by late-round submission or decision, with Jeffery likely to push for control and point accumulation early.
Predicted Score: Dalton Rosta wins via late submission or unanimous decision after three or more rounds.