Match Analysis: Fabian Edwards vs Dalton Rosta – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-21
• Time: 2:00 AM UTC
• Location: PFL World Tournament Finals, Hollywood, Florida, USA

Game Overview

The PFL Middleweight Tournament final pits Fabian Edwards against Dalton Rosta in a highly anticipated clash to decide the 2025 PFL Middleweight champion. Both fighters have displayed skill and resilience throughout the tournament, setting up a competitive and strategic matchup expected to run the full five rounds.

Key Factors to Consider

• Fabian Edwards comes with a strong background including previous Bellator title challenges, showcasing durability and effective striking, while Dalton Rosta has demonstrated aggressive grappling and stamina, making this a battle of styles between precise striking and relentless pressure.
• This will be their first direct competitive match, with no prior head-to-head results available, adding an element of unpredictability to the fight.
• No reported significant injuries for either fighter leading up to the bout, both entering in peak physical condition as confirmed by recent training updates.
• The fight is the main event at the PFL World Tournament Finals, attracting global attention streamed live on DAZN. Pressure and motivation to claim the title on a big stage could influence performance.
• Fabian Edwards is motivated to claim a tournament title after near misses in Bellator, while Dalton Rosta aims to leverage momentum and youthful energy to secure his first major championship, intensifying the competitive atmosphere.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Fabian Edwards: -205, Dalton Rosta: 165	Fabian Edwards	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Fabian Edwards -1.5 rounds: -120, Dalton Rosta +1.5 rounds: 100	Fabian Edwards -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 3.5 rounds: -110, Under 3.5 rounds: -110	Over 3.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Fabian Edwards -2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Fabian Edwards at -2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Fabian Edwards is favored to win by decision after a tactical fight, leveraging his experience and precise striking to control the rounds against Dalton Rosta's pressure style.

Predicted Score: Fabian Edwards wins by unanimous decision after five rounds

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Fabian Edwards vs. Dalton Rosta Prediction	Fabian Edwards Win	-205	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Ming Shi vs. Bruna Brasil Prediction	Bruna Brasil Win	-280	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Bryce Meredith vs. Lazaro Dayron Prediction	Bryce Meredith Win	-140	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +246

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $69.23

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Match Analysis: Dalton Rosta vs Aaron Jeffrey – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-28
• Time: 2:30 AM UTC
• Location: Wintrust Arena, Chicago, Illinois, United States

Game Overview

This middleweight PFL World Tournament semifinal features Dalton Rosta (10-1, 1-0 PFL) against Aaron Jeffery (16-5, 1-0 PFL). Rosta, known as 'Hercules', is an explosive fighter with a strong ground-and-pound game and recently demonstrated submission skills with a brabo choke in the quarterfinals. Jeffery previously defeated Rosta in 2023 by neutralizing his takedown attempts with sharp sprawls and accumulating points with clinch strikes. This bout is pivotal as Rosta looks to avenge his only career loss and advance towards a world title shot.

Key Factors to Consider

• Dalton Rosta has been dominant in his recent performances, showcasing improvements in submission grappling alongside his traditional ground-and-pound style. Aaron Jeffery has a proven defensive approach, especially in takedown defense, which was effective in their prior encounter. Both fighters enter this match with momentum, each having won their quarterfinal matches in the tournament.
• They have fought once before in 2023, with Aaron Jeffery winning by effectively countering Rosta’s takedown attempts and maintaining control through clinch strikes. Rosta has since adjusted his approach, improving his submission skills and tactical versatility in preparation for this rematch.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to this bout, both appear to be in peak condition and fully ready to compete.
• The fight takes place at Wintrust Arena in Chicago, which may slightly favor Rosta who fights out of American Top Team and is known to perform well in high-stakes environments. Jeffery’s Canadian background and experience make him comfortable in major venues as well. Both fighters are highly motivated.
• Rosta’s motivation is fueled by his desire for redemption after his only career loss to Jeffery, adding a psychological edge. Jeffery aims to reinforce his dominance and secure a path to the title, giving him equally high drive.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Dalton Rosta: -140, Aaron Jeffery: +120	Dalton Rosta	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Dalton Rosta -1.5: -110, Aaron Jeffery +1.5: -110	Dalton Rosta -1.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -115, Under 2.5 rounds: -105	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Dalton Rosta is predicted to narrowly win this rematch by leveraging improved submission skills and adjusting his takedown approach to bypass Jeffery’s defense. The fight is expected to be competitive with Rosta using precise grappling and explosiveness to control the pace.

Predicted Score: Dalton Rosta wins via submission in Round 3

Match Analysis: Dalton Rosta vs Aaron Jeffery – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-28
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: PFL World Tournament 7 Semifinals Venue

Game Overview

The PFL World Tournament 7 Semifinals features a highly anticipated middleweight MMA bout between Dalton Rosta and Aaron Jeffery. Both fighters are 1-0 in the PFL season, with Rosta holding a 10-1 overall record and Jeffery 16-5. This matchup is a rematch, with Jeffery having won their first encounter in 2023 by using effective takedown defense and clinch striking to neutralize Rosta's ground-and-pound style. Rosta has since evolved his game, demonstrated by a recent submission victory, and is highly motivated to avenge his only loss and advance to contend for the world title.

Key Factors to Consider

• Dalton Rosta appears in top form, showing explosiveness and improved submission skills in his recent fights, notably submitting Sadibou Sy with a brabo choke. Aaron Jeffery has demonstrated effective takedown defense and clinch striking, using sharp sprawls and point accumulation strategies to outpoint opponents, including Rosta previously.
• In their previous fight in 2023, Aaron Jeffery defeated Dalton Rosta by utilizing superior takedown defense and clinch control to negate Rosta's grappling. Rosta lost that fight but has since refined his approach and is seeking redemption in this rematch.
• No public reports of injuries affecting either fighter leading up to this bout, indicating both are likely entering the fight at full health.
• The fight is part of the PFL 2025 World Tournament semifinals with high stakes. Both fighters have strong motivation to secure a spot in the finals. The event is broadcast live on ESPN and ESPN+, suggesting a high-profile spotlight.
• Dalton Rosta is highly motivated to avenge his only career defeat and to cement his status as a world title contender. Aaron Jeffery aims to defend his previous victory and continue his momentum in the tournament. Both fighters are locked in mentally and physically for this critical matchup.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Dalton Rosta: -140, Aaron Jeffery: 110	Dalton Rosta	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Dalton Rosta: -1.5, Aaron Jeffery: +1.5	Dalton Rosta to win by more than 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under	over_1.5_rounds: 1.85, under_1.5_rounds: 1.95	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 57%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Dalton Rosta 1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Dalton Rosta at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Dalton Rosta is favored to win due to his recent improvements, well-rounded skill set including submission ability, and motivation to avenge his loss. However, Aaron Jeffery’s proven takedown defense and clinch effectiveness make him a formidable opponent likely to make the fight competitive.

Predicted Score: Dalton Rosta wins via submission in Round 2

Match Analysis: Dalton Rosta vs Sadibou Sy – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: April 18, 2025
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: Not specified

Game Overview

Dalton Rosta and Sadibou Sy are set to face off in a Middleweight match as part of the PFL tournament. Rosta, with a record of 9-1, will be up against the more experienced Sy, who boasts a 17-8-2 record.

Key Factors to Consider

• Sadibou Sy has a long-standing career with many fights under his belt, while Dalton Rosta has a strong win-loss ratio but fewer professional fights.
• This is their first match; thus, no past head-to-head data exists.
• No specified injuries have been reported for either fighter.
• The match's part of PFL World Tournament might add both pressure and motivation for both fighters.
• Both fighters are highly motivated to win, given the tournament format and their careers.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Sadibou Sy 4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Sadibou Sy at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Sadibou Sy likely has a slight edge due to his extensive experience and better overall record in the MMA scene.

Predicted Score: Not applicable for MMA