Match Analysis: Cristina Brador vs Mackenzie Stiller – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-12
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Mystic Lake Showroom, Prior Lake, Minnesota
Game Overview
The matchup between Cristina Brador (3-1) and Mackenzie Stiller (4-1) in the LFA 217 strawweight division features contrasting styles: Brador with striking and wrestling defense and Stiller with strong Brazilian jiu-jitsu submission skills. The three-round bout is expected to see Brador trying to keep the fight standing while Stiller aims to take it to the ground.
Key Factors to Consider
- Brador shows solid stand-up with wins mostly by decision and some submission threat, with a 75% recent win rate. Stiller has a 80% win rate, with 60% of wins by submission, showing ground dominance.
- No recorded previous encounters between Brador and Stiller. Styles suggest a classic striker vs grappler scenario.
- No reported injuries on either fighter prior to the bout; both have expressed full confidence and health.
- Fight held at home soil in Minnesota with a good crowd support likely balanced between the two American fighters; no travel disadvantages apparent.
- Stiller appears highly motivated to capitalize on her recent submission win for LFA status, while Brador fights to maintain ascending trajectory after her strong recent form.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cristina Brador: +145, Mackenzie Stiller: -170 | Mackenzie Stiller | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Stiller -1.5 rounds: -120, Brador +1.5 rounds: +100 | Mackenzie Stiller -1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: +100, Under 2.5 rounds: -120 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mackenzie Stiller -8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Mackenzie Stiller to win by submission
Predicted Score: Stiller wins by submission in round 2