Match Analysis: Cristian Pérez vs Manoel Sousa – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-27
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Game Overview
Cristian Pérez, an exceptional grappler relying on ground control and submissions, faces Manoel Sousa, a powerful striker known for his knockout ability. The matchup presents a classic grappler versus striker dynamic, making the fight outcome uncertain but strategically interesting for betting.
Key Factors to Consider
- Pérez holds a record of 13-1, demonstrating consistent grappling dominance and control. Sousa has an 11-1 record showcasing strong striking and finishing power. Both fighters have shown recent strong form in their respective specialties.
- No prior head-to-head fights exist between Pérez and Sousa, adding an element of unpredictability.
- No reported current injuries for either fighter leading into the matchup, indicating both should be at full strength.
- The bout takes place at Contender Series 2025 Week 3 in Las Vegas, a high-profile environment where both fighters are motivated to impress Dana White and advance their careers.
- Both fighters appear highly motivated; Pérez aims to demonstrate grappling supremacy to secure UFC opportunities, while Sousa seeks to capitalize on his striking power to claim a highlight finish. Motivation is balanced.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cristian Pérez: +240, Manoel Sousa: -300 | Manoel Sousa | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Sousa -1.5: -150, Pérez +1.5: +130 | Sousa -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5: -215, Under 1.5: +175 | Over 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Manoel Sousa -11% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 1.5 -15% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Manoel Sousa at -11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Manoel Sousa is favored to win via striking prowess, but Cristian Pérez's grappling threat makes the fight competitive. Given odds and styles, betting on Sousa moneyline offers the highest expected value. Spread favors Sousa to win by decision or finish narrowly. Over 1.5 rounds is favored given fight duration expectations.
Predicted Score: Manoel Sousa wins via decision or late finish in round 2 or 3