Match Analysis: Colby Thicknesse vs Josias Musasa – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 12:15 AM UTC
- Location: RAC Arena, Perth, Australia
Game Overview
This UFC Bantamweight prelim bout features Josias Musasa, an 8-1 fighter known as 'The KO Wizard,' against Colby Thicknesse, a 7-1 fighter nicknamed 'Slickness.' Both fighters are evenly matched with similar records and complementary styles, vying to improve their rankings in the division.
Key Factors to Consider
- Josias Musasa has a slightly superior recent form with an 8-1 record compared to Thicknesse’s 7-1, showing more finishing ability and experience in high-pressure bouts. Thicknesse is highly technical but has been the underdog in recent fights, suggesting a slight disadvantage in momentum.
- There are no recorded head-to-head fights between Musasa and Thicknesse, making this a fresh matchup with limited direct comparative data.
- Neither fighter currently reports any known injuries affecting their preparation or performance for this bout.
- The fight being in Perth, Australia, may slightly favor Musasa who has fought in similar international venues recently, while Thicknesse will be traveling internationally, possibly impacting acclimatization.
- Both fighters have strong motivation to break into higher UFC rankings, with Musasa looking to capitalize on his favorite status and Thicknesse seeking to upset and prove his technical superiority.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Colby Thicknesse: +126, Josias Musasa: -150 | Josias Musasa | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Spread | Musasa -1.5: -110, Thicknesse +1.5: -110 | Musasa -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: +100, Under 2.5: -120 | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 57% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Josias Musasa -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 5% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Josias Musasa to win by decision
Predicted Score: Musasa wins by decision (3 rounds, unanimous)