Match Analysis: Cody Durden vs Allan Nascimento – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-01
• Time: 7:00 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

The MMA flyweight bout features Allan Nascimento and Cody Durden, both 34 years old, set for UFC Vegas 110 at the UFC Apex. Nascimento, standing 5'8" with a 69" reach, has a record of 21-6-0, emphasizing striking precision and defense, landing 2.64 significant strikes per minute at 60% accuracy while absorbing 1.96. Durden is 5'7" with a 67" reach, has a 17-8-1 record, and is more volume-oriented, connecting 3.44 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy but absorbing more strikes (4.35/min). Both show 50% strike defense. Nascimento has a low takedown accuracy (24%) and defense (30%), while Durden boasts solid wrestling, cardio, and durability. Durden is coming off back-to-back losses (1-4 in last five fights), while Nascimento is on a 3-fight win streak (4-1 last five). This fight pits Nascimento's accuracy and defense against Durden's volume and wrestling control.

Key Factors to Consider

• Nascimento shows effective striking economy and solid defense, with recent momentum (3 wins in last 4 fights). Durden, despite higher striking volume, has suffered recent setbacks and absorbs more strikes, relying on wrestling and cardio to outwork opponents.
• The fighters have no recorded head-to-head bouts prior to this match, making this encounter a fresh tactical challenge.
• No current injuries reported for either fighter ahead of the match.
• The fight takes place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a neutral venue with no clear home advantage. Both fighters compete at flyweight (125 lbs) with similar ages and conditioning.
• Nascimento is motivated by a 3-fight win streak aiming to maintain momentum, while Durden seeks to rebound from two consecutive losses, likely increasing his urgency and effort.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Allan Nascimento: -260, Cody Durden: +220	Allan Nascimento	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Allan Nascimento -1.5 rounds: -120, Cody Durden +1.5 rounds: +100	Nascimento -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Allan Nascimento -7%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 15%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Allan Nascimento is favored to win due to superior striking efficiency, recent form, and defense capabilities. Durden’s wrestling and pressure could pose a challenge, but Durden’s lower striking defense and recent performances reduce his likelihood of victory. Expect a tactical fight with Nascimento likely to control range and pacing.

Predicted Score: Nascimento wins by decision or late stoppage (3 rounds)

Match Analysis: Cody Durden vs Jose Ochoa – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-14
• Time: 12:25 AM UTC
• Location: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Game Overview

UFC flyweight bout between Cody Durden (17-7-1) and Jose Ochoa (7-1, 1 NC) at UFC Fight Night Atlanta. No titles are on the line. Durden is a home-state veteran with more experience, while Ochoa is a young, aggressive prospect with a high knockout rate.

Key Factors to Consider

• Durden averages 3.52 sig. strikes/min, lands 45% of attempts, and absorbs 4.29/min with 49% defense. Ochoa averages 3.33 sig. strikes/min, lands 31% of attempts, and absorbs 3.40/min with 59% defense. Ochoa has a higher defense rate and a strong finish rate, but less professional experience.
• No prior head-to-head meetings between Durden and Ochoa.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• Durden fights in his home state, potentially boosting local support and motivation. Ochoa is the younger, less experienced fighter.
• Durden seeks to rebound from a recent loss, while Ochoa looks to continue his ascent in the division and avenge his sole pro loss.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Cody Durden: +160, Jose Ochoa: -192	Jose Ochoa favored, but with expected close margin	★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread	Cody Durden: 3.5 -120, Jose Ochoa: -3.5 -110	Jose Ochoa to cover -3.5 (win by decision or stoppage within rounds, not guaranteed due to Durden’s resilience)	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under	Over: 2.5 -130, Under: 2.5 +100	Under 2.5 rounds (fight ends before 2:30 of round 3) is a slight value, but Over 2.5 is a reasonable hedge given both fighters’ abilities to go the distance.	★★★☆☆ 50%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jose Ochoa -6%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Jose Ochoa at -6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

This is a closely matched fight due to similar physical stats and fighting styles. Ochoa is favored by oddsmakers, likely due to his recent performances and high finish rate, but Durden's experience and home advantage could make this more competitive than the odds suggest. Both fighters have shown vulnerability, but Ochoa's youth and defense efficiency may give him a slight edge. However, Durden’s experience and home crowd could be a difference-maker in a fight that could go the distance or feature a late finish.

Predicted Score: Jose Ochoa by decision (unanimous or split), or late TKO in round 3.