Match Analysis: Cody Durden vs Jose Ochoa – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-15
- Time: 12:25 AM UTC
- Location: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
Game Overview
A UFC Fight Night bout between local favorite Cody Durden and Peru's rising contender José Ochoa at State Farm Arena. Durden, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, returns to his hometown for his 13th UFC fight, facing Ochoa in what is their first head-to-head matchup. The event is part of the Usman vs. Buckley card, with Durden having strong local support and a reputation for reliability and toughness[1][4][5].
Key Factors to Consider
- Cody Durden: 13th UFC fight, recent mixed results including a win over Matt Schnell and a loss to Joshua Van. Known for durability and solid grappling. José Ochoa: Up-and-coming, less UFC experience, but strong base in striking and grappling. Durden has more UFC experience and a proven track record at this level[1][5].
- No prior head-to-head matchups between Durden and Ochoa[5].
- No reported injuries for either fighter. Both are medically cleared and ready to compete[1][5].
- Durden has overwhelming local fan support and is highly motivated fighting at home. The fight is part of a high-profile UFC event, adding to the intensity for both athletes[1][4].
- Durden is highly motivated by the hometown crowd and the opportunity to rebound after recent losses. Ochoa is eager to prove himself at the UFC level and make a statement[1][5].
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cody Durden: 154, Jose Ochoa: -185 | José Ochoa by decision or late stoppage | Not available |
| Spread | Cody Durden: 3.5 -120, Jose Ochoa: -3.5 -110 | Ochoa covers -3.5 (wins by clear margin) | Not available |
| Over/under | Over: 2.5 -130, Under: 2.5 100 | Over 2.5 rounds (fight goes to a decision) | Not available |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jose Ochoa 65% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 15% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Jose Ochoa at 65% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 42.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Cody Durden is the more experienced fighter with significant UFC-level experience and a strong grappling game, but José Ochoa is the betting favorite due to recent momentum and potential stylistic advantages. The fight is expected to be competitive, with pressure on both athletes. The high motivation and crowd support for Durden could level the playing field, but Ochoa’s odds reflect a greater expectation of victory by the market.
Predicted Score: José Ochoa by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)