Match Analysis: Cody Durden vs Allan Nascimento – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-01
• Time: 11:15 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

The matchup features Allan Nascimento (-300 favorite) vs. Cody Durden (+250 underdog) at UFC Vegas 110. Nascimento, a 34-year-old orthodox fighter with a 21-6 career record, is on a 3-1 recent winning run, showing strong grappling and defensive striking. Durden, also 34, is a southpaw with a 17-8-1 record but has lost 4 of his last 5 fights and generally allows more significant strikes per minute. The bout's dynamics suggest Nascimento has the edge in control and efficiency despite Durden's higher strike volume.

Key Factors to Consider

• Nascimento is 4-1 in his last five fights, displaying solid grappling and striking defense (absorbing 1.96 significant strikes per minute, defending 50%). Durden has a poor recent form at 1-4 and absorbs a higher rate of significant strikes (4.35 per minute).
• This is a first-time matchup with no direct history. Styles favor Nascimento's control and efficiency over Durden's volume punching.
• No known recent injuries reported for either fighter that would significantly impact performance.
• Fight takes place at UFC Apex with no apparent external disadvantages to either fighter; motivation appears equal as both are veterans seeking wins.
• Nascimento is on a positive streak with momentum, likely more motivated to continue his rise. Durden is motivated to rebound from consecutive losses but is fighting under pressure.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: +250, away: -300	Away – Allan Nascimento	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Nascimento -1.5: -160, Durden +1.5: +140	Nascimento -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 73%
Over/under	over 2.5: -118, under 2.5: -102	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Allan Nascimento -7%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 19%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Allan Nascimento to win via decision or late finish.

Predicted Score: Nascimento wins by unanimous decision (3-0 rounds)

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – November 1, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Alice Ardelean vs. Montserrat Ruiz Prediction	Under 2.5	210	102%
Billy Elekana vs. Kevin Christian Prediction	Under 1.5	124	39%
Cody Durden vs. Allan Nascimento Prediction	Under 2.5	-102	19%

Combined Odds: +1275 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $275.04

Match Analysis: Cody Durden vs Jose Ochoa – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-15
• Time: 12:25 AM UTC
• Location: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA

Game Overview

A UFC Fight Night bout between local favorite Cody Durden and Peru's rising contender José Ochoa at State Farm Arena. Durden, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, returns to his hometown for his 13th UFC fight, facing Ochoa in what is their first head-to-head matchup. The event is part of the Usman vs. Buckley card, with Durden having strong local support and a reputation for reliability and toughness[1][4][5].

Key Factors to Consider

• Cody Durden: 13th UFC fight, recent mixed results including a win over Matt Schnell and a loss to Joshua Van. Known for durability and solid grappling. José Ochoa: Up-and-coming, less UFC experience, but strong base in striking and grappling. Durden has more UFC experience and a proven track record at this level[1][5].
• No prior head-to-head matchups between Durden and Ochoa[5].
• No reported injuries for either fighter. Both are medically cleared and ready to compete[1][5].
• Durden has overwhelming local fan support and is highly motivated fighting at home. The fight is part of a high-profile UFC event, adding to the intensity for both athletes[1][4].
• Durden is highly motivated by the hometown crowd and the opportunity to rebound after recent losses. Ochoa is eager to prove himself at the UFC level and make a statement[1][5].

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Cody Durden: 154, Jose Ochoa: -185	José Ochoa by decision or late stoppage	Not available
Spread	Cody Durden: 3.5 -120, Jose Ochoa: -3.5 -110	Ochoa covers -3.5 (wins by clear margin)	Not available
Over/under	Over: 2.5 -130, Under: 2.5 100	Over 2.5 rounds (fight goes to a decision)	Not available

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jose Ochoa 65%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 15%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Jose Ochoa at 65% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 42.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Cody Durden is the more experienced fighter with significant UFC-level experience and a strong grappling game, but José Ochoa is the betting favorite due to recent momentum and potential stylistic advantages. The fight is expected to be competitive, with pressure on both athletes. The high motivation and crowd support for Durden could level the playing field, but Ochoa’s odds reflect a greater expectation of victory by the market.

Predicted Score: José Ochoa by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)