Match Analysis: Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-14
- Time: 10:41 PM UTC
- Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio
Game Overview
The Cleveland Guardians host the Miami Marlins in the final game of a three-game series. Both teams are mid-table with playoff hopes, with Cleveland slightly favored at home. The Guardians have a marginally better recent form and offense, while the Marlins' pitching, led by Edward Cabrera, is solid but untested against Cleveland.
Key Factors to Consider
- Cleveland Guardians are 62-57 with a 7-3 record in their last 10 games, showing strong home performance averaging over 3.5 runs per game. Miami Marlins stand at 58-62 with respectable batting stats but a higher team ERA (4.52) and WHIP (1.30), indicating pitching vulnerabilities.
- Recent head-to-head is evenly matched with 6 wins each. Cleveland leads slightly at home with 3 wins vs. Miami's 4 road wins. Marlins won the last meeting decisively 13-4, but home advantage for Cleveland may offset this.
- No significant injuries reported for either team affecting lineup or starting pitching.
- Game is at Cleveland's Progressive Field, favoring home team conditions. Weather and other external factors are normal with no impact forecasted.
- Both teams seek to bolster playoff chances late in the season, but Cleveland’s slightly better recent form and home advantage increase their motivation to secure a win.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | CLE -136, MIA +116 | Cleveland Guardians | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | CLE -1.5 +155, MIA +1.5 -188 | Miami Marlins +1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 7.5 -118, Under 7.5 -104 | Under 7.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Cleveland Guardians 4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 7.5 14% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 7.5 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Cleveland Guardians to win on the moneyline, cover the -1.5 run line, and for the total runs to go under 7.5.
Predicted Score: Cleveland Guardians 4 – Miami Marlins 3