Match Analysis: Clayton Carpenter vs Jafel Filho – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-11
• Time: 2:00 PM UTC
• Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Game Overview

Clayton Carpenter faces Jafel Filho in a UFC Flyweight bout with Carpenter slightly favored on the moneyline. Carpenter (8-1) is younger with higher significant strikes landed per minute, better accuracy, and stronger defense. Filho (16-4) is more experienced but lands fewer significant strikes and takes fewer per minute. Both use orthodox stance and are closely matched in height and reach.

Key Factors to Consider

• Carpenter boasts a high 3.91 significant strikes landed per minute at 55% accuracy, while Filho lands 1.92 strikes per minute at 41% accuracy. Defensively, Carpenter allows 2.75 strikes per minute but deflects 55%, Filho allows 1.63 strikes per minute with 47% deflection. Carpenter has younger age (29 vs. 32) and a recent KO win momentum.
• No direct previous bouts found between Carpenter and Filho.
• No reported injuries or recent layoffs affecting either fighter.
• Fight location in Rio may slightly favor Filho due to home crowd support and familiarity, but Carpenter appears mentally focused with stronger recent form.
• Both fighters highly motivated for UFC Rio event, Carpenter eager to solidify his rising status; Filho motivated to leverage experience against a younger contender.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-125	Clayton Carpenter	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Clayton Carpenter -3.5 (150)	Clayton Carpenter -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 (-195)	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Clayton Carpenter 4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -9%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Clayton Carpenter at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Clayton Carpenter to win by moneyline

Predicted Score: Clayton Carpenter wins by decision or late finish, total rounds: 3