Match Analysis: Dario Bellandi vs Claudio Ribeiro – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-04
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Rome
Game Overview
Middleweight (185lbs) title fight for Cage Warriors 195, five rounds. Bellandi (Italy, 9-1-0) is a rising contender with strong recent form and a well-rounded skill set. Ribeiro (Brazil, 13-6-0) is a tough, experienced striker but has shown inconsistency against top grappling pressure.
Key Factors to Consider
- Bellandi has won recent bouts and shown durability and composure under pressure, with a 5-round decision win in his last title fight. Ribeiro has faced tougher UFC-level competition but has struggled against wrestlers and strong athletic grapplers.
- First professional meeting.
- No significant injuries reported for either fighter as of the fight date.
- Bellandi fights at home, which may provide a cardio and crowd advantage in the championship rounds.
- Both fighters are highly motivated—Bellandi aiming to cement himself as CW’s top local star, Ribeiro seeking redemption after a tough UFC stint.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -135, away: 115 | Dario Bellandi by decision (moneyline) | Not available |
| Over/under | over: -165, under: 145 | Over 1.5 rounds | Not available |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dario Bellandi 13% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 1.5 12% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Dario Bellandi at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bellandi’s grappling, cardio, and hometown edge present significant stylistic challenges for Ribeiro, who struggles when pressured by strong wrestlers.
Predicted Score: Bellandi defeats Ribeiro by unanimous decision (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)