Match Analysis: Claudio Pacella vs Aleksandr Chizov – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-26
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: PFL Europe Week 3 Venue (Specific venue not available)

Game Overview

Lightweight semifinal match between Claudio Pacella (6-2) fighting out of Dublin, Ireland, and Aleksandr Chizov (12-1) competing in the PFL 2025 season. Both fighters have strong records in the lightweight division, with Chizov demonstrating dominance with a higher winning percentage and finishing ability.

Key Factors to Consider

• Pacella trains with SBG Ireland, known for producing well-rounded fighters. Chizov has shown consistency with a 12-1 record and multiple early finishes in the PFL, indicating strong performance momentum.
• No direct previous matchups found between Pacella and Chizov, making this their first encounter. Historical matchup data unavailable.
• No publicly available information on current injuries for either fighter ahead of the match.
• Event is part of PFL Europe Week 3, adding importance as a semifinal. Fighters may be motivated by championship progression and potential PFL accolades. Live odds indicate market confidence favoring Chizov.
• Chizov enters as a top contender with a nearly perfect record, likely seeking to maintain momentum. Pacella, with fewer fights at this level, has a strong desire to prove himself and advance in the tournament.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Aleksandr Chizov: -164, Claudio Pacella: 134	Aleksandr Chizov	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Aleksandr Chizov: -1.5 rounds -110, Claudio Pacella: +1.5 rounds -110	Aleksandr Chizov -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -120, Under 2.5 rounds: 100	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Aleksandr Chizov -2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Aleksandr Chizov at -2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Aleksandr Chizov is favored to win due to his superior record, finishing capability, and current betting market confidence. Expect a competitive bout with Chizov likely winning by decision or early finish.

Predicted Score: Aleksandr Chizov wins by decision or stoppage within 3 rounds

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Vincent del Guerra vs. Sofiane Aïssaoui Prediction	Vincent del Guerra Win	-390	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Claudio Pacella vs. Aleksandr Chizov Prediction	Aleksandr Chizov Win	-164	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Dean Garnett vs. Jan Cieplowski Prediction	Dean Garnett Win	-150	★★★★☆ 73% (73%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +237

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $67.42

Match Analysis: Claudio Pacella vs Gavin Hughes – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-10
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: SSE Arena, Belfast, Northern Ireland

Game Overview

Claudio Pacella (Italy, 5-2) faces Gavin 'Big Tasty' Hughes (England, 11-4) in a PFL Europe Lightweight Tournament bout at the SSE Arena, Belfast. Both fighters are looking to advance in a competitive lightweight division, with Hughes bringing more experience and Pacella training out of Dublin, Ireland[5].

Key Factors to Consider

• Gavin Hughes boasts a deeper record (11-4) and more professional bouts than Claudio Pacella (5-2). Pacella has shown promise with solid wins and trains in a high-level environment, but Hughes' experience could be a decisive factor[5].
• No prior head-to-head matchups between these fighters are recorded[1][3].
• No injury reports are available for either fighter at this time[2][5].
• The fight is part of a high-profile PFL Europe event, which may add pressure. Both fighters are familiar with European MMA circuits, but Hughes has faced tougher opposition consistently[5].
• This is a tournament bout, so both fighters are highly motivated. For Pacella, it's a chance to prove himself on a bigger stage. For Hughes, it's an opportunity to leverage experience and potentially make a run at the PFL Europe title[5].

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Pacella: -350, Hughes: +225	Hughes (underdog)	Medium (60%)

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Claudio Pacella 37%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Claudio Pacella at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Gavin Hughes is favored to win by decision or late stoppage, leveraging his experience and deeper skill set. Pacella is game and has home-region support, but Hughes' track record against stiffer competition gives him the edge.

Predicted Score: Decision win for Gavin Hughes (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)