Match Analysis: Claudio Pacella vs Aleksandr Chizov – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-26
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Nantes, France
Game Overview
Aleksandr Chizov (-164) faces Claudio Pacella (+134) in a PFL Europe 3 lightweight bout, where Chizov opens as favorite due to more consistent recent performances and favorable odds movement.
Key Factors to Consider
- Chizov has shown stronger recent form with multiple wins in PFL and professional bouts, whereas Pacella has a mixed record and fewer high-profile wins.
- No recorded previous encounter between Claudio Pacella and Aleksandr Chizov, making direct matchup data unavailable.
- No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the matchup.
- Fight takes place in Nantes, France, a neutral venue for both, minimizing home advantage. Both fighters are competing in PFL Europe, indicating similar preparation levels.
- Chizov's recent upward career trajectory in PFL Europe likely increases his motivation and confidence; Pacella has incentives but less momentum.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Chizov -164 / Pacella +134 | Aleksandr Chizov | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Chizov -1.5 (+130), Pacella +1.5 (-150) | Aleksandr Chizov -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds (-110), Under 2.5 rounds (-110) | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Aleksandr Chizov -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Aleksandr Chizov at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Aleksandr Chizov to win by straight victory on the moneyline, with a decision inside the distance expected under 2.5 rounds.
Predicted Score: Aleksandr Chizov wins by decision or finish within 2 rounds