Match Analysis: Christian Rodriguez vs Andre Fili – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-09
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

Christian Rodriguez vs Andre Fili is a featherweight UFC bout featuring a younger, highly accurate striker in Rodriguez against a taller, experienced fighter Fili with a contrasting style and more reach.

Key Factors to Consider

• Rodriguez (12-3) has a higher significant strike accuracy (50%) and defense (54%) compared to Fili's 37% accuracy and 51% defense. Fili lands more strikes per minute (3.84 vs 3.63) but absorbs significantly more (4.15 vs 2.66), indicating Rodriguez is more efficient and durable.
• No documented previous direct matchup exists between Rodriguez and Fili, making this a stylistic clash rather than familiarity-based contest.
• No known injuries reported for either fighter going into the fight, suggesting both are physically prepared.
• The fight is at UFC Apex amid a neutral environment favoring no athlete by location—Rodriguez being younger and possibly hungrier, Fili older but experienced.
• Rodriguez, at 27, is on the rise with a strong recent form and motivation to climb ranks, while Fili, at 35, may face declining physical attributes despite experience.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Christian Rodriguez: -245, Andre Fili: +200	Christian Rodriguez	★★★★☆ 74%
Spread	Christian Rodriguez -3.5: 105, Andre Fili +3.5: -140	Christian Rodriguez -3.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -230, Under 2.5 rounds: 175	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 63%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Christian Rodriguez -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 73%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 73% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 41.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Christian Rodriguez to win on the moneyline by decision

Predicted Score: Christian Rodriguez wins by decision, fight lasting 3 rounds

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – August 9, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Christian Rodriguez vs. Andre Fili Prediction	Under 2.5	175	73%
Iasmin Lucindo vs. Angela Hill Prediction	Over 2.5	-720	65%
Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Eryk Anders Prediction	Under 2.5	145	59%

Combined Odds: +667 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $153.47

Match Analysis: Melquizael Costa vs Christian Rodriguez – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: March 29, 2025
• Time: 8:10 PM UTC
• Location: Arena CDMX, Mexico City

Game Overview

Christian Rodriguez faces Melquizael Costa in a featherweight bout at UFC on ESPN 64. Both fighters are looking to make a statement with their unique styles: Rodriguez is known for his decision-based wins, while Costa boasts impressive submission skills.

Key Factors to Consider

• Christian Rodriguez has a strong record with 12 wins and 2 losses, while Melquizael Costa has 22 wins and 7 losses, highlighting his experience. Rodriguez's recent victory over Austin Bashi and Costa's submission win over Andre Fili are notable performances.
• There is no previous head-to-head match between these fighters, making this a first-time encounter.
• There are no reported injuries for either fighter as of now.
• The event's setting at Arena CDMX in Mexico City might influence the energy and crowd support, potentially favoring neither fighter due to international participation.
• Both fighters are motivated to secure a win for different reasons— Rodriguez to strengthen his unbeaten streak by decision, and Costa to showcase his submission prowess.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Christian Rodriguez: -170, Melquizael Costa: 142	Christian Rodriguez	★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread	Christian Rodriguez: -3.5 120, Melquizael Costa: 3.5 -165	Melquizael Costa +3.5	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over: 2.5 -195, Under: 2.5 150	Over 2.5	★★★☆☆ 65%

Predicted Outcome

Christian Rodriguez is favored to win.

Predicted Score: Decision or late-round finish for Rodriguez