Match Analysis: Christian Leroy Duncan vs Marco Tulio Silva – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 12:15 AM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Game Overview
Christian Leroy Duncan faces Marco Tulio Silva in a Middleweight bout on the main card of UFC Vegas 111. Duncan is a tall, switch-hitting striker with knockout power, while Silva is a resilient, high-volume striker with strong grappling defense. The fight is a clash of styles, with Duncan's aggression and Silva's durability and counter-striking.
Key Factors to Consider
- Duncan has shown marked improvement, finishing Eryk Anders in August with a dominant striking display. Silva is undefeated (14-1) and lands at a high rate (7.54 sig strikes/min) but has never faced a fighter with Duncan's reach and power. Duncan lands 4.83 sig strikes/min and defends 51% of strikes, while Silva defends 61% but absorbs more volume.
- No prior H2H matchup exists between the two fighters.
- No reported injuries for either fighter.
- The fight takes place in Las Vegas, neutral site. Both fighters are in their prime (Duncan 30, Silva 31). No weather or travel issues.
- Duncan is on a two-fight win streak and looking to break into the upper tier. Silva is undefeated in the UFC and motivated to maintain his record and climb the rankings.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: 154, away: -185 | Marco Tulio Silva | Not available |
| Spread | home: 3.5 -135, away: -3.5 100 | Marco Tulio Silva -3.5 | Not available |
| Over/under | over: 2.5 -125, under: 2.5 -105 | Over 2.5 | Not available |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Marco Tulio Silva -8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 17% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Marco Tulio Silva wins by decision. Silva's high-volume striking and superior defense will neutralize Duncan's aggression over three rounds. Duncan's knockout power is a threat, but Silva's resilience and ability to absorb and return fire make him the safer pick for a decision victory.
Predicted Score: Marco Tulio Silva wins by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)