Match Analysis: Mateusz Rebecki vs Chris Duncan – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-02
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Game Overview
A highly competitive lightweight UFC bout between Mateusz Rebecki (20-2) and Chris Duncan (13-2), both 32 years old with contrasting fighting styles (southpaw vs orthodox) and physical attributes (Rebecki shorter with 66" reach vs Duncan taller with 71" wingspan). Rebecki is the favorite based on deeper significant striking output and accuracy, but Duncan presents a challenge with size and striking defense.
Key Factors to Consider
- Rebecki shows superior striking volume and accuracy (4.7 significant strikes per min at 48% accuracy) compared to Duncan (4.2 strikes per min at 45%). Rebecki absorbs more strikes but also boasts better defense, preventing 54% of opponent strikes versus Duncan's 47%.
- No direct previous matchups recorded between Rebecki and Duncan, making tactical matchups and style analysis crucial.
- No current reported injuries for either fighter, both appear in full health and primed for this contest.
- Fight takes place at UFC Apex with no significant travel or altitude concerns. The 155 lbs weight class is natural for both fighters.
- Both fighters are experienced veterans seeking to improve their UFC standings; Rebecki slightly favored to maintain momentum while Duncan motivated to upset a top contender.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rebecki -205, Duncan +170 | Mateusz Rebecki | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Rebecki -3.5 (-135), Duncan +3.5 (100) | Mateusz Rebecki -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 (-175), Under 1.5 (135) | Under 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mateusz Rebecki 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 41% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 41% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Mateusz Rebecki to win on the moneyline
Predicted Score: Mateusz Rebecki wins by decision or late stoppage within 3 rounds