Match Analysis: Chasen Blair vs Samuel Sanches – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-10
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, USA

Game Overview

Chasen Blair is seeking a UFC contract on Dana White's Contender Series for the second time, facing the rising Brazilian prospect Samuel Sanches, who boasts a 10-1 record with powerful striking and improving takedown defense. The match promises a clash between Blair's grappling skills and Sanches' explosive knockout power and speed.

Key Factors to Consider

• Blair has strong grappling credentials with multiple submission wins but limited knockout power, while Sanches has six knockouts in his ten wins and excels in striking and quick finishes. Blair recently went 5-0 with eight finishes (seven KOs, one submission), but Sanches' knockout streak and striking evolution give him a momentum edge.
• This is their first encounter, making it a fresh matchup with no head-to-head history influencing the fight dynamics.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the match, suggesting both enter at full health.
• The fight takes place at the UFC Apex, where Blair has prior experience, possibly giving him a slight comfort advantage. The event is broadcast on ESPN+ in the USA, contributing to heightened competitive pressure.
• Blair is motivated by the chance to secure a UFC contract on his second attempt, while Sanches aims to extend his momentum and establish himself as a top lightweight prospect at only 22 years old.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Chasen Blair: -105, Samuel Sanches: -115	Samuel Sanches	★★★★☆ 78%
Over/under	over_1.5_rounds: -128, under_1.5_rounds: 108	Under 1.5 rounds (early finish expected)	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Chasen Blair -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 35%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 35% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Samuel Sanches is favored to win, leveraging his superior striking speed, power, and improved takedown defense to potentially finish Blair inside two rounds.

Predicted Score: Samuel Sanches wins by KO/TKO in Round 2

Match Analysis: Chasen Blair vs Diego Visanzay – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-26
• Time: 5:00 PM UTC
• Location: RDS Arena, Dublin, Ireland

Game Overview

The lightweight catchweight bout between Chasen Blair and Diego Visanzay at Cage Warriors 188 in Dublin is a clash between two skilled fighters with differing profiles. Blair enters as a heavy favorite based on current odds and recent performances, while Visanzay poses a threat as a durable and technically sound competitor. The fight promises a tactical battle with Blair’s favored striking and power against Visanzay’s resilience and technique.

Key Factors to Consider

• Chasen Blair has demonstrated strong form recently in Cage Warriors with a high finish rate and aggressive striking style. Diego Visanzay has been competitive but less dominant, relying more on technical grappling and durability. Blair’s recent momentum and power give him an edge in performance.
• There is no recorded previous head-to-head meeting between Chasen Blair and Diego Visanzay, making this their first competitive encounter.
• No significant injuries reported for either fighter leading into the bout, indicating both are likely to be in peak condition.
• The fight takes place at the iconic RDS Arena in Dublin, which could provide an energetic environment. Visanzay is traveling from abroad, potentially affecting acclimatization, while Blair benefits from fighting closer to home.
• Blair is motivated to solidify his standing and progress toward title contention in Cage Warriors, while Visanzay aims to upset the favorite and establish himself as a contender, adding a dynamic layer of motivation for both.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Chasen_Blair: -700, Diego_Visanzay: 400	Chasen Blair	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Chasen_Blair: -1.5, Diego_Visanzay: +1.5	Chasen Blair to cover -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 80%
Over/under	over_2.5_rounds: -110, under_2.5_rounds: -110	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Chasen Blair -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Chasen Blair at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Chasen Blair is predicted to win by a methodical striking and power advantage, likely ending the fight before the final bell. Diego Visanzay’s durability could extend the fight to later rounds, but Blair’s finishing ability is expected to prevail.

Predicted Score: Chasen Blair wins by TKO in Round 2