Match Analysis: Chase Hooper vs Nikola Kacperska – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-21
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: TBA

Game Overview

The upcoming MMA bout features Chase Hooper, a rising UFC lightweight prospect, against Nikola Kacperska, a Polish strawweight fighter with a solid regional record. The matchup is unusual due to the significant weight and experience disparity, with Hooper competing at a higher level and with more high-profile exposure. Kacperska is known for her technical striking and grappling, but faces a steep challenge against Hooper’s well-rounded skill set and UFC pedigree.

Key Factors to Consider

• Chase Hooper has competed in the UFC and Dana White's Contender Series, facing top-tier competition and demonstrating strong grappling and submission skills. Nikola Kacperska has a 3-2 record in regional promotions, with wins over less experienced opponents. Hooper’s resume is far more impressive, with higher-level training and competition.
• There is no prior head-to-head history between Chase Hooper and Nikola Kacperska. This is their first professional encounter.
• No recent injuries have been reported for either fighter leading up to this bout.
• The bout is likely to be contested at a catchweight or with Hooper moving down, which could impact his strength and stamina. Kacperska’s experience is primarily in strawweight, while Hooper is a natural lightweight.
• Hooper is motivated to rebound from recent setbacks and reestablish himself in the UFC. Kacperska is seeking a breakthrough win against a higher-profile opponent to boost her international profile.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Chase Hooper: -200, Nikola Kacperska: 150	Chase Hooper	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Chase Hooper -1.5	Chase Hooper covers	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over/Under 2.5 rounds	Under	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Chase Hooper 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Chase Hooper at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Chase Hooper is favored to win this matchup due to his superior experience, skill set, and competition level. Nikola Kacperska will likely push the pace and test Hooper’s adaptability, but Hooper’s grappling and fight IQ should prevail. The most likely outcome is a decision or submission win for Hooper.

Predicted Score: Chase Hooper wins by decision or submission in round 3

Match Analysis: Alex Hernandez vs Chase Hooper – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-16
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: United Center, Chicago

Game Overview

Lightweight UFC prelims bout between Alex Hernandez and Chase Hooper at UFC 319. Hooper enters with a 16-3-1 record, known for solid striking and defensive acumen. Hernandez holds a 16-8 record, experienced but with a lower defensive strike percentage.

Key Factors to Consider

• Chase Hooper has a better strike accuracy (51%) and absorbs fewer significant strikes per minute (2.96) compared to Hernandez, who lands 40% of his strikes but absorbs 4.62 per minute. Hooper is slightly taller (6'1 vs 5'9) with a longer reach (74" vs 72") which may influence striking range.
• No recorded previous fights between Alex Hernandez and Chase Hooper, making their styles and recent form the primary comparison.
• No public injury reports for either fighter ahead of the match, suggesting both are in optimal condition.
• Fight is held at United Center in Chicago, a neutral venue with no clear home advantage. The match is prelims, possibly affecting fighter motivation and crowd dynamics.
• Both fighters are motivated to improve standings in the lightweight division. Hooper, younger at 25, seeks to maintain upward momentum; Hernandez, aged 32, looks to secure a critical career win.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Alex Hernandez: 250, Chase Hooper: -300	Chase Hooper to win	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Chase Hooper -1.5 rounds: -110, Alex Hernandez +1.5 rounds: -110	Chase Hooper to win within 2 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -115, Under 2.5 rounds: -115	Fight to go Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Chase Hooper -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Chase Hooper is favored to win due to superior striking defense, reach advantage, and recent stronger form.

Predicted Score: Chase Hooper wins by decision or late TKO around round 3

Match Analysis: Chase Hooper vs Jim Miller – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-13
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Kaseya Center, Miami

Game Overview

Chase Hooper is set to face veteran Jim Miller at UFC 314 in a lightweight bout. Hooper, currently on a four-fight winning streak, looks to extend his success against Miller, who is nearing the end of his career but remains a formidable opponent with extensive experience.

Key Factors to Consider

• Hooper has been impressive with a strong recent record, while Miller's experience and fighting spirit make him a tough competitor despite being at the end of his career.
• This is their first encounter. Miller's recent win over Damon Jackson and Hooper's submission of Clay Guida highlight the competitive nature of both fighters.
• No significant injuries have been reported that would affect the fight.
• Both fighters are highly respected opponents, but Miller's career longevity might be a psychological factor for Hooper as he looks to build a reputation against veterans.
• Both fighters are motivated, with Hooper looking to solidify his position in the lightweight division and Miller aiming to extend his career.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Chase Hooper -99%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 -99%

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Based on Hooper's recent performance, he is favored to win, but Miller's experience could make the fight highly competitive.

Predicted Score: Hooper wins via decision or late submission.