Match Analysis: Charlie Radtke vs Daniel Frunza – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-01
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV

Game Overview

Charlie Radtke, a versatile 35-year-old fighter with 10 wins in 15 pro bouts, faces 31-year-old striker Daniel Frunza who has 9 wins in 12 bouts. Radtke has shown balanced skills in striking and grappling with a recent KO win, while Frunza, a striker, is coming off a first-round TKO loss in his UFC debut.

Key Factors to Consider

• Radtke exhibits superior recent form with a May 2025 second-round KO over Mike Malott, reflecting both finishing ability and experience in the top promotion. Frunza suffered a decisive first-round TKO in April 2025 making his UFC debut.
• There are no recorded head-to-head matches between Radtke and Frunza, making this fight a fresh test of styles and strategy.
• No significant or reported injuries impacting performance for either fighter ahead of the bout.
• The fight takes place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a neutral venue. Both fighters are competing on prelims with no known external distractions.
• Radtke aims to confirm his status as a rising UFC contender following his recent KO, while Frunza seeks redemption after a tough UFC debut loss, providing him motivation to improve.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Charlie Radtke: -180, Daniel Frunza: +150	Charlie Radtke	★★★★☆ 74%
Spread	Charlie Radtke: -3.5 -115, Daniel Frunza: +3.5 -115	Charlie Radtke -3.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: -130, Under 1.5 rounds: +100	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 63%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Charlie Radtke -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 16%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Charlie Radtke to win by moneyline given his superior all-around skills, experience, and recent knockout success against a striker who was stopped early in his UFC debut.

Predicted Score: Charlie Radtke wins by TKO in Round 2

Match Analysis: Mike Malott vs Charlie Radtke – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-10
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Bell Centre, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Game Overview

Mike Malott, known for his early finishing ability and submission skills, faces Charles Radtke, a tactical and resilient fighter coming off a TKO win. The bout is at welterweight and is generating significant interest, with Malott as the favorite due to his recent performances and home-country advantage. Both fighters are coming off wins, with Malott's last being a unanimous decision over Trevin Giles, while Radtke recently scored a TKO over Matthew Semelsberger.

Key Factors to Consider

• Malott has an 11-2-1 record and has shown strong finishing ability, especially in the early rounds. Radtke stands at 10-4, with a tactical style and good endurance; he can gain momentum if the fight goes past the first two rounds.
• No previous matchups between Malott and Radtke.
• No major pre-fight injuries reported for either fighter.
• Malott fights at home in Canada, which may boost his motivation. Radtke has engaged in pre-fight trash talk, but Malott remains focused.
• Both fighters are highly motivated: Malott to impress his home crowd and continue his win streak, Radtke to prove himself against a higher-ranked opponent.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	{'Mike Malott': -166, 'Charlie Radtke': 140}	Mike Malott to win	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	{'Mike Malott -3.5': -115, 'Charlie Radtke +3.5': -115}	Mike Malott -3.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	{'Over 1.5': -154, 'Under 1.5': 120}	Under 1.5 (fight ends in 1st or 2nd round)	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Mike Malott -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 21%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 21% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Mike Malott is favored due to his superior finishing ability and recent momentum. He’s expected to push aggressively in the early rounds, with a strong chance to finish Radtke via TKO in the first or second round. However, Radtke’s resilience and tactical approach could swing the fight if it goes late, but Malott’s home crowd and early aggression are likely decisive factors.

Predicted Score: Predicted Method: Mike Malott by TKO, Round 2