Match Analysis: Tom Nolan vs Charlie Campbell – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 2:15 AM UTC
- Location: RAC Arena, Perth, Australia
Game Overview
This featherweight bout between Tom Nolan and Charlie Campbell at UFC Fight Night 260 features Nolan fighting at home in Australia with a slight edge as the favorite. Nolan is on a three-fight winning streak with a record of 9-1 and known for his rangy striking and diverse kicks. Campbell is stepping in on short notice, holds a 9-2 overall record with a 2-1 UFC mark, and possesses finishing abilities with a near-even split between KOs, submissions, and decisions. The fight is expected to be competitive with key factors including Nolan’s home advantage and Campbell’s momentum despite being the guest fighter.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tom Nolan is currently on a three-fight winning streak, recovering well from an early UFC debut loss. He fights with reach and technical striking, mixing body and leg kicks with knees. Charlie Campbell has solid finishing percentages but is at slight disadvantage bringing a short-notice fight and less UFC experience.
- No documented previous fight between Tom Nolan and Charlie Campbell.
- No current injury reports known for either fighter.
- Nolan fights in his home country Australia, which may influence judging and provide a moral advantage. Campbell is considered a guest fighter, possibly facing biased judging. Additionally, pressure might affect Nolan due to competing at home.
- Nolan aims to extend his winning streak and capitalize on the home advantage. Campbell looks motivated to prove himself stepping in on short notice and building UFC momentum.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Charlie Campbell: +124, Tom Nolan: -148 | Tom Nolan | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Charlie Campbell: -125, Tom Nolan: -105 | Tom Nolan -3.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over: +140, Under: -180 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tom Nolan 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 -7% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Tom Nolan at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tom Nolan is predicted to win by decision, leveraging his reach, home advantage, and consistency in performance. The fight likely will go the distance given both fighters' preference for decision wins and balanced finishing rates.
Predicted Score: Tom Nolan wins by unanimous decision (3-0 rounds)