Match Analysis: Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-29
- Time: 4:30 AM UTC
- Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Game Overview
This highly anticipated lightweight title bout at UFC 317 features Ilia Topuria, the former UFC featherweight champion with an undefeated record and recent knockout streak, against Charles Oliveira, the experienced former lightweight champion ranked No. 2. Both fighters bring contrasting styles: Topuria with his explosive striking and perfect record, Oliveira with his seasoned grappling and resilience. The bout is set for June 28, 2025, live from T-Mobile Arena.
Key Factors to Consider
- Topuria enters with a perfect MMA record and consecutive knockout wins, showcasing powerful and precise striking. Oliveira, despite recent setbacks, has vast experience in the lightweight division, known for his dynamic grappling and submission skills.
- This is their first direct matchup. Analytical insight from past opponents suggests Oliveira's success may hinge on neutralizing Topuria's aggressive striking early and leveraging ground game opportunities.
- No reported injuries affecting either fighter leading into the bout. Both appear fully fit and ready to compete.
- The fight takes place at T-Mobile Arena, a major venue that can influence fighter motivation and performance due to high stakes and large audience pressure. Both fighters have expressed strong intent, with Oliveira promising to aggressively push forward.
- Topuria is motivated by his undefeated streak and desire to claim the lightweight title. Oliveira seeks redemption and to reclaim his status as champion, motivated to overcome a favored opponent and demonstrate his grit.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ilia Topuria: -455, Charles Oliveira: 350 | Ilia Topuria | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Ilia Topuria: -5.5 -370, Charles Oliveira: 5.5 250 | Ilia Topuria by more than 5.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5: -145, Under 1.5: 114 | Over 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ilia Topuria -15% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 1.5 -2% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at -2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Topuria's dominant striking and momentum, combined with Oliveira's experience and grappling threat, the fight is expected to be competitive but with Topuria favored to win by decision or late stoppage. Oliveira's ability to impose a grappling-heavy strategy could extend the fight, but Topuria's power and precision present a significant challenge.
Predicted Score: Ilia Topuria wins via late 3rd round TKO or unanimous decision