Match Analysis: Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-12
• Time: 1:45 AM UTC
• Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil

Game Overview

Lightweight UFC main event between Charles Oliveira, a submission specialist with a longer reach and finishing rate, and Mateusz Gamrot, a wrestler with a strong takedown average but less finishing power.

Key Factors to Consider

• Oliveira has an 89% finishing rate and excels in submissions, while Gamrot holds a strong wrestling base with higher takedown averages. Oliveira has been less consistent recently but possesses high fight IQ and finishing ability.
• No recorded previous matchups between Oliveira and Gamrot; styles suggest Oliveira's Jiu-Jitsu could counter Gamrot's wrestling.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout.
• Fight taking place in Brazil, Oliveira's home country, which may give him psychological and crowd advantage.
• Oliveira seeking to reestablish himself as a top lightweight contender; Gamrot eager to prove himself on a big stage and in prime age.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Charles Oliveira: -112, Mateusz Gamrot: -108	Charles Oliveira	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Charles Oliveira -5.5: 120, Mateusz Gamrot +5.5: -165	Mateusz Gamrot +5.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 3.5: 105, Under 3.5: -135	Under 3.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Charles Oliveira 2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 3.5 1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Charles Oliveira at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 2.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Charles Oliveira to win by moneyline

Predicted Score: Charles Oliveira wins by submission in Round 3

Match Analysis: Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-29
• Time: 4:30 AM UTC
• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada

Game Overview

This highly anticipated lightweight title bout at UFC 317 features Ilia Topuria, the former UFC featherweight champion with an undefeated record and recent knockout streak, against Charles Oliveira, the experienced former lightweight champion ranked No. 2. Both fighters bring contrasting styles: Topuria with his explosive striking and perfect record, Oliveira with his seasoned grappling and resilience. The bout is set for June 28, 2025, live from T-Mobile Arena.

Key Factors to Consider

• Topuria enters with a perfect MMA record and consecutive knockout wins, showcasing powerful and precise striking. Oliveira, despite recent setbacks, has vast experience in the lightweight division, known for his dynamic grappling and submission skills.
• This is their first direct matchup. Analytical insight from past opponents suggests Oliveira's success may hinge on neutralizing Topuria's aggressive striking early and leveraging ground game opportunities.
• No reported injuries affecting either fighter leading into the bout. Both appear fully fit and ready to compete.
• The fight takes place at T-Mobile Arena, a major venue that can influence fighter motivation and performance due to high stakes and large audience pressure. Both fighters have expressed strong intent, with Oliveira promising to aggressively push forward.
• Topuria is motivated by his undefeated streak and desire to claim the lightweight title. Oliveira seeks redemption and to reclaim his status as champion, motivated to overcome a favored opponent and demonstrate his grit.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Ilia Topuria: -455, Charles Oliveira: 350	Ilia Topuria	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Ilia Topuria: -5.5 -370, Charles Oliveira: 5.5 250	Ilia Topuria by more than 5.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 1.5: -145, Under 1.5: 114	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Ilia Topuria -15%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 -2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at -2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Topuria's dominant striking and momentum, combined with Oliveira's experience and grappling threat, the fight is expected to be competitive but with Topuria favored to win by decision or late stoppage. Oliveira's ability to impose a grappling-heavy strategy could extend the fight, but Topuria's power and precision present a significant challenge.

Predicted Score: Ilia Topuria wins via late 3rd round TKO or unanimous decision