Match Analysis: Lany Silva vs Charles Oliveira – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-15
• Time: 12:00 PM UTC
• Location: To be announced

Game Overview

The MMA match features Charles Oliveira, a Brazilian lightweight with a record of 35-11, against Lany Silva. Oliveira is a highly experienced fighter with a strong grappling and submission background, recently victorious by submission over Mateusz Gamrot. Silva is the home favorite with current moneyline odds indicating strong market confidence in her. The fight is scheduled for November 15, 2025 at 12:00 UTC with venue details yet to be disclosed.

Key Factors to Consider

• Charles Oliveira holds 35 wins with many via submission and a notable striking accuracy (54%) and solid grappling average takedown success (23.5%). His recent fights show resilience with wins by submission and a well-rounded stand-up game. Lany Silva is favored by bookmakers at -200 moneyline, indicating strong home performance or perceived stylistic advantage but detailed stats on Silva are limited in current data.
• No direct head-to-head records between Oliveira and Silva are found in the available data, making this fight more about contrasting styles and recent form than historical matchup trends.
• No injury reports are currently available for either fighter ahead of this bout, suggesting both are likely healthy and ready to compete at full strength.
• Oliveira is fighting outside Brazil often but recently competed at UFC Fight Night in Brazil successfully. There is no indication of travel or external stress factors affecting either fighter.
• Oliveira, competing as a highly ranked UFC Lightweight, is motivated to maintain or improve ranking status. Silva’s momentum and home advantage contribute to her confidence and drive.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Charles Oliveira: +150, Lany Silva: -200	Lany Silva	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Lany Silva -1.5 rounds (-110) / Charles Oliveira +1.5 rounds (-110)	Lany Silva by more than 1 round	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds (-105) / Under 2.5 rounds (-115)	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Lany Silva 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Lany Silva at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the betting odds and Oliveira's grappling prowess combined with Silva’s home advantage, the prediction leans towards Silva to win by decision or Oliveira to secure a late submission.

Predicted Score: Lany Silva wins by unanimous decision or Oliveira wins by submission in round 2

Match Analysis: Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-11
• Time: 1:45 AM UTC
• Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Game Overview

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot is the main event for a lightweight bout between former UFC Lightweight Champion Charles Oliveira and former KSW Featherweight and Lightweight Champion Mateusz Gamrot. The event marks UFC's 13th visit to Rio de Janeiro and features top lightweight contenders vying for dominance in the division.

Key Factors to Consider

• Charles Oliveira holds a professional record of 35 wins and 11 losses with a high grappling and submission skillset, averaging 2.63 submissions per fight. Mateusz Gamrot holds a 25-3 professional record, known for his striking slightly tempered by less submission ability, and a notably higher takedown average (5.33 TD avg) but lower accuracy. Both fighters are specialists in ground game with Oliveira more submission-heavy and Gamrot focusing on control via takedowns.
• This will be the first matchup between Oliveira and Gamrot, with no direct head-to-head combat history, making strategic style versus style a key factor.
• No current injuries reported for either fighter leading into the bout. Mateusz Gamrot replaced the originally scheduled Rafael Fiziev, who withdrew due to a knee injury.
• The fight is held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, favoring Charles Oliveira with home crowd advantage. The event’s timing and atmosphere could influence momentum toward Oliveira who is accustomed to fighting in Brazil.
• Oliveira is motivated to reclaim prominence in the lightweight division after losing the title, while Gamrot, stepping in on short notice, aims to make a statement by defeating a former champion. Both fighters have strong incentives for a competitive, high-intensity performance.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Charles Oliveira: -112, Mateusz Gamrot: -108	Charles Oliveira	★★★☆☆ 58%
Spread	Charles Oliveira: -5.5 120, Mateusz Gamrot: +5.5 -165	Mateusz Gamrot +5.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	over: 3.5 105, under: 3.5 -135	Under 3.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Charles Oliveira 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 3.5 13%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 3.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Charles Oliveira is predicted to win due to his elite submission skills, home advantage, and slightly better striking accuracy. Gamrot’s takedown volume and control present a significant challenge, but Oliveira's experience at the highest level could secure a victory, likely by submission or decision.

Predicted Score: Charles Oliveira wins by submission in round 3

Match Analysis: Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-29
• Time: 4:30 AM UTC
• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada

Game Overview

UFC 317 presents a highly anticipated Lightweight Title Bout between Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira for the vacant lightweight championship. Both fighters bring contrasting styles: Topuria is known for his striking and grappling balance, while Oliveira is renowned for his submission expertise and experience at the elite lightweight level. This match is expected to be a strategic and technical battle with high stakes, as it decides the new champion in the division.

Key Factors to Consider

• Ilia Topuria has built momentum with impressive recent wins, showcasing powerful striking and solid takedown defense. Charles Oliveira, a former champion, has an extensive record of submission victories and resilience demonstrated over multiple title runs. Oliveira’s fight IQ and experience may give him an edge in adapting during the match, whereas Topuria’s youth and aggressive style could pressure Oliveira early.
• This is their first professional encounter, with no prior head-to-head bouts reported. Both fighters have expressed mutual respect, and their recent face-to-face meeting showed a sportsmanlike atmosphere that could influence their tactical approach.
• No current injury reports or issues have been disclosed for either fighter heading into the bout, indicating both are expected to compete at full strength.
• The fight is held at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, a neutral site with no pronounced home advantage. The match takes place during the UFC International Fight Week, adding promotional spotlight and potential psychological pressure. Media build-up has highlighted Oliveira’s vow to 'walk forward,' signaling an aggressive plan that could affect fight dynamics.
• Both competitors are highly motivated: Topuria seeks to capture his first UFC lightweight title and establish himself definitively in the division, while Oliveira aims to reclaim the belt and solidify his legacy. The vacant title increases stakes, incentivizing both fighters equally.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Charles Oliveira: 350, Ilia Topuria: -455	Ilia Topuria to win	★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread	Charles Oliveira: +5.5 @ 2.50, Ilia Topuria: -5.5 @ -3.70	Ilia Topuria -5.5	★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: -145, Under 1.5 rounds: 114	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Ilia Topuria -15%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 -4%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at -4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Considering the odds, recent performances, and fight styles, Ilia Topuria is favored due to his current form and more favorable betting lines. Oliveira’s experience suggests a chance for a submission or late fight turnaround, but Topuria’s striking and youth likely push him ahead. The prediction is a Topuria victory by decision or late stoppage with approximately 60% confidence.

Predicted Score: Ilia Topuria wins by unanimous decision or TKO in later rounds