Match Analysis: Davey Grant vs Charles Jourdain – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: Rogers Arena, Vancouver, BC
Game Overview
A high-stakes bantamweight bout between two aggressive, well-rounded strikers: Charles Jourdain (16-8-1, -166 moneyline favorite) looks to extend his momentum after a successful bantamweight debut, while Davey Grant (17-7-0, +140) arrives with a 4-1 run in his last five, including a recent decision win over Da'Mon Blackshear[1][2]. Both fighters have nearly identical reach, but Jourdain is the bigger volume striker with a slight edge in accuracy and defense[1].
Key Factors to Consider
- Jourdain lands 5.43 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy, absorbs 4.27, and defends 56% of strikes. Grant lands 5.18/minute at 44%, absorbs 3.74, and defends 55%. Jourdain's recent bantamweight debut was a win, while Grant is 4-1 in his last five, with his only loss in that span to a top-ranked opponent[1][2].
- No prior matchups.
- No recent injury news reported for either fighter.
- Fight takes place in Vancouver, Canada—Jourdain's home country, but not a decisive home-cage advantage. No major external factors reported.
- Jourdain is looking to establish himself at bantamweight after a promising debut. Grant, at 39, may be fighting to maintain relevance near the end of his career but has shown consistent form and durability.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jourdain -166, Grant +140 | Jourdain | ★★★☆☆ 63% |
| Spread | Jourdain -3.5 +110, Grant +3.5 -150 | Grant +3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 -210, Under 2.5 +160 | Over 2.5 | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Charles Jourdain -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 6% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Expect a technical standup battle with Jourdain's superior volume, youth, and recent divisional success giving him a narrow edge, but Grant's toughness, experience, and recent form make him a live underdog. Fight goes the distance at bantamweight pace.
Predicted Score: Charles Jourdain def. Davey Grant via Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)