Match Analysis: Estudiantes La Plata vs Cerro Porteño – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-20
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi, La Plata
Game Overview
The second leg of the CONMEBOL Copa Libertadores Round of 16 between Estudiantes La Plata and Cerro Porteño is set at Estudiantes' home ground in La Plata. In the first leg played at La Nueva Olla in Asunción, Estudiantes shocked Cerro Porteño with a dramatic 1-0 victory secured by a penalty converted in the 90+8 minute. Estudiantes controlled possession and created more chances but struggled for clear-cut opportunities, while Cerro Porteño played a deep defensive game. The home advantage and last-minute goal give Estudiantes the upper hand going into this decisive second leg.
Key Factors to Consider
- Estudiantes have shown resilience and composure, especially scoring late in the first leg, demonstrating strong mental fortitude. Their ability to maintain possession contrasts with Cerro Porteño's defensive approach. Cerro Porteño needs to adopt a more attacking strategy at La Plata to overturn the deficit. Both teams will likely be cautious, with Estudiantes aiming to protect their narrow lead.
- Recent direct confrontation favors Estudiantes who won 1-0 away from home. Historically, the matchup has been competitive but the narrow first-leg victory adds pressure on Cerro Porteño for this second leg.
- No specific injury updates are reported publicly for either side near the date. Key players like Santiago Ascacíbar for Estudiantes are expected to be fit and pivotal.
- Playing at home in La Plata provides Estudiantes with familiar conditions and strong fan support. The altitude and travel may pose slight challenges for Cerro Porteño. Weather conditions and pitch quality have not been reported as concerns.
- Estudiantes are highly motivated to capitalize on their away win to progress deeper into the tournament, while Cerro Porteño faces a must-win situation to stay alive in the Copa Libertadores, adding urgency to their approach.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Estudiantes La Plata: -148, Cerro Porteño: 475, Draw: 255 | Estudiantes La Plata win or draw, with Estudiantes favored for the victory | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Estudiantes La Plata -0.75: -125, Cerro Porteño +75: -105 | Estudiantes to cover the -0.75 spread | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2 goals: -140, Under 2 goals: 108 | Under 2 goals expected due to tight defenses and cautious play | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Estudiantes La Plata 4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 25% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Estudiantes La Plata are favored to win or at least draw, leveraging their home advantage and precious away goal lead. The match is expected to be tight, possibly low-scoring, with Estudiantes controlling the pace and Cerro Porteño pressing to score.
Predicted Score: 1-0 in favor of Estudiantes La Plata