Match Analysis: Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-28
- Time: 4:45 AM UTC
- Location: RAC Arena, Perth, Australia
Game Overview
Carlos Ulberg faces Dominick Reyes in a light heavyweight main event at UFC Fight Night 260. Ulberg enters with a 13-1 record, showing solid grappling and striking efficiency. Reyes, at 15-4, brings experience with slightly better striking accuracy but lower takedown success.
Key Factors to Consider
- Ulberg is on a strong upward trajectory with a recent key decision win over Jan Blachowicz, showcasing control and conditioning. Reyes has demonstrated resilience but is coming off mixed results and shows slightly lower takedown accuracy.
- No prior fights between Ulberg and Reyes; this will be their first encounter.
- No reported injuries to either fighter leading up to the bout, both expected to be in competitive shape.
- Fight taking place in Perth may favor Ulberg slightly given his recent acclimation to fight outside the US and stronger recent form momentum.
- Ulberg motivated to break into title contention with a signature win; Reyes looking to reassert himself after setbacks and keep career trajectory positive.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Carlos Ulberg: -250, Dominick Reyes: +205 | Carlos Ulberg | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Carlos Ulberg -13.5: -180, Dominick Reyes +13.5: +130 | Carlos Ulberg -13.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: +120, Under 2.5 rounds: -154 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Carlos Ulberg -2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 -1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Carlos Ulberg to win by decision
Predicted Score: Carlos Ulberg wins by unanimous decision