Match Analysis: Carlos Leal vs Muslim Salikhov – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-26
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Game Overview

Carlos Leal and Muslim Salikhov meet in a welterweight MMA bout at UFC Abu Dhabi with contrasting styles and statistics. Leal is the heavy favorite with faster strike output, while Salikhov's defense and striking accuracy remain notable.

Key Factors to Consider

• Leal has a higher significant strike rate (9.65/min) and accuracy (50%) but takes more incoming strikes (7.73/min). Salikhov lands fewer strikes (3.38/min) but defends better, absorbing only 2.90 significant strikes/min and blocking 62%.
• No direct head-to-head history between Leal and Salikhov available for this matchup, making form and style matchup critical.
• No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the bout.
• Fight takes place in Abu Dhabi, neutral ground likely minimizing travel fatigue impacts. Both fighters compete professionally to advance welterweight rankings.
• Leal is favored heavily and likely motivated to justify his status, while Salikhov as underdog aims to capitalize on defensive strengths and upset potential.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Carlos Leal -500 / Muslim Salikhov +375	Carlos Leal	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Not explicitly provided; implied -1.5 rounds for Leal	Carlos Leal by more than 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds -145 / Under 1.5 rounds +115	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Carlos Leal -8%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 29%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 29% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Carlos Leal to win by moneyline

Predicted Score: Carlos Leal wins by TKO in round 2

Match Analysis: Alex Morono vs Carlos Leal – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-08
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas

Game Overview

Alex Morono faces Carlos Leal in a welterweight bout at UFC 313. Morono, known for his aggressive style, will look to capitalize on his experience against the less seasoned Leal.

Key Factors to Consider

• Alex Morono has a more extensive UFC background, which could give him an edge in terms of experience and adaptability. Carlos Leal, however, might bring a fresh and unpredictable approach to the fight.
• There is no recorded head-to-head match between Alex Morono and Carlos Leal, making this a first encounter.
• No recent injury reports have been noted for either fighter.
• The fight takes place in Las Vegas, which might not significantly impact either fighter's performance due to both being accustomed to high-level competition.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Morono seeking to continue his career milestones and Leal aiming to make a statement in the UFC.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Alex Morono: +575, Carlos Leal: -775	Carlos Leal	★★★★☆ 70%
Over_under	Over 1.5: -205, Under 1.5: +165	Over 1.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Alex Morono is expected to win due to his experience, but Carlos Leal could pose a challenge.

Predicted Score: Decision or late-round finish in favor of Carlos Leal.