Match Analysis: Carlos Diego Ferreira vs Alex Hernandez – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-13
• Time: 8:00 PM UTC
• Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas

Game Overview

Lightweight MMA bout featured in the undercard of Noche UFC at Frost Bank Center. Alexander Hernandez returns to his hometown of San Antonio on a hot winning streak, having recently knocked out Chase Hooper in the first round. Carlos Diego Ferreira brings a strong grappling skill set and experience in UFC lightweight competition. This fight pits Hernandez's striking and momentum against Ferreira's well-rounded grappling and veteran savvy.

Key Factors to Consider

• Hernandez has been performing impressively with recent finishes including a first-round knockout in his last fight. Ferreira's recent form shows resilience and experience, though without a recent knockout streak. Hernandez's momentum and striking advantage contrast with Ferreira's grappling strengths.
• There are no records of previous fights between the two, making this encounter a first-time matchup with both fighters bringing unique skill sets and motivations.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to this bout, indicating both are in full training and physical condition for fight night.
• The fight is taking place in Hernandez's hometown, giving him a potential morale boost and crowd support advantage. The event is large with significant UFC attention, increasing fighter motivation.
• Hernandez motivated by fighting at home and extending his hot streak; Ferreira motivated to prove veteran worth and counter Hernandez's hometown advantage.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Alex Hernandez: -105, Carlos Diego Ferreira: -115	Alex Hernandez	★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread	Alex Hernandez: 3.5 -195, Carlos Diego Ferreira: -3.5 140	Alex Hernandez +3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over: 2.5 -135, Under: 2.5 105	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Carlos Diego Ferreira 3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 23%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Alexander Hernandez to win via knockout or decision, leveraging home crowd support and recent knockout momentum to outstrike and avoid grappling troubles. Ferreira’s grappling will test Hernandez but is less likely to impose given Hernandez's improved takedown defense and aggression.

Predicted Score: Hernandez wins by KO or decision within 3 rounds

Match Analysis: King Green vs Carlos Diego Ferreira – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-16
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: United Center, Chicago, Illinois

Game Overview

The lightweight bout between King Green and Carlos Diego Ferreira is scheduled for August 16, 2025, at UFC 319 in Chicago. Both fighters are veterans with contrasting recent form: Green (32-17-1) enters after back-to-back losses, including a KO loss, while Ferreira (19-6) is coming off a decision loss but has a strong submission win history. The fight is expected to be competitive and action-packed given both fighters' striking volume, defensive styles, and experience.

Key Factors to Consider

• King Green is known for high activity and precision, landing 6.40 significant strikes per minute with 52% accuracy, but has recently suffered knockouts and submission losses. Ferreira lands fewer strikes per minute (4.82) with 40% accuracy but has a higher defense rate, absorbing 3.46 significant strikes per minute and blocking 55%. Ferreira also has key submission wins and better reach (wingspan: 74" vs Green's 71").
• No prior head-to-head matchup between King Green and Carlos Diego Ferreira. Both fighters have longstanding mutual respect and desire to fight each other, making this a highly anticipated match.
• No current injury reports for either fighter. Ferreira was ahead of schedule for weight cut at 162 lbs, indicating good physical readiness. Green is coming off recent KO and submission losses but no reported injuries.
• The fight is on the prelims card of a stacked UFC 319 event featuring top matchups, potentially influencing fighter motivation and crowd dynamics. The bout's cancellation was briefly rumored but confirmed to be proceeding.
• Ferreira expressed eagerness to finally face Green, having called him out for years. Green seeks to rebound after recent losses, making motivation strong on both sides.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Carlos Diego Ferreira: -155, King Green: 130	Carlos Diego Ferreira	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Carlos Diego Ferreira: -3.5 -110, King Green: +3.5 -120	Carlos Diego Ferreira -3.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over: 1.5 -215, Under: 1.5 165	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Carlos Diego Ferreira 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 -5%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Carlos Diego Ferreira at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Carlos Diego Ferreira is favored to win due to a better recent record, higher defensive capability, experience in submissions, and reach advantage. However, Green's striking volume and accuracy pose a significant threat, making this fight highly competitive.

Predicted Score: Carlos Diego Ferreira wins by submission in Round 2