Match Analysis: Carlos Diego Ferreira vs Alex Hernandez – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: San Antonio, Texas
Game Overview
Lightweight bout between Carlos Diego Ferreira and Alexander Hernandez with Ferreira as a slight favorite by odds. Hernandez is fighting at home in San Antonio, which could influence performance.
Key Factors to Consider
- Ferreira has shown more consistency in his recent performances, with several wins disrupting top contenders and good striking and grappling balance. Hernandez, while talented, has been less consistent and coming off some mixed results.
- Neither fighter appears to have prior head-to-head matchups, making this fight a fresh contest without direct past data.
- No significant injury reports have been noted for either fighter prior to the bout.
- Hernandez fighting in his hometown of San Antonio could provide motivation and fan support, but Ferreira is experienced in handling hostile environments.
- Hernandez is motivated to defend his home turf and make a statement in front of a home crowd, but Ferreira is motivated by climbing lightweight rankings and redemption after previous setbacks.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alex Hernandez: -105, Carlos Diego Ferreira: -115 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Spread | Alex Hernandez +3.5: -195, Carlos Diego Ferreira -3.5: 140 | Carlos Diego Ferreira -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 52% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -135, Under 2.5: 105 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alex Hernandez 8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 23% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Carlos Diego Ferreira to win by decision
Predicted Score: Carlos Diego Ferreira wins by unanimous decision after three rounds