Match Analysis: Tomoya Tsuboi vs Carlos Cuadras – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-24
- Time: 10:00 AM UTC
- Location: Toyota Arena, Tokyo, Koto-Ku, Japan
Game Overview
The boxing match between Tomoya Tsuboi and Carlos Cuadras is scheduled for 10 rounds in the Super Flyweight division (115 lbs) at Toyota Arena, Tokyo on November 24, 2025. Tsuboi is a young, undefeated Japanese prospect with a 2-0 record and emerging rapidly as a top contender, while Cuadras is a highly experienced and decorated Mexican fighter with a 44-5-1 record, including 28 knockouts. Cuadras holds the top WBC ranking at Super Flyweight, whereas Tsuboi is newer to the pro ranks but boasts a strong amateur pedigree.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tomoya Tsuboi has 2 professional fights with 1 knockout win, showing early promise with a fast progression including a WBA Asia Pacific Bantamweight title. Carlos Cuadras, with 50 professional fights and 28 KOs, demonstrates vast experience and power. Cuadras has a 64% KO rate versus Tsuboi's 50%. Cuadras also has superior ring time (307 rounds vs 12 for Tsuboi) and a slight height advantage.
- There is no recorded prior fight between Tomoya Tsuboi and Carlos Cuadras, making this a first-time encounter.
- No reported injuries for either fighter in the lead-up to the fight.
- The fight takes place in Tokyo, giving Tsuboi a hometown advantage and potential crowd support. Cuadras's age (37) versus Tsuboi (29) could impact stamina. Both orthodox fighters, so stylistically similar.
- Tsuboi seeks to capitalize on his undefeated status and accelerate his climb in world rankings, aiming to challenge top champions soon. Cuadras, a former world champion, looks to reassert himself among the division's elite and possibly earn another title shot.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tomoya Tsuboi: -715, Carlos Cuadras: 465 | Tomoya Tsuboi to win | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Tomoya Tsuboi: -1.5, Carlos Cuadras: +1.5 | Tomoya Tsuboi -1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | over_8.5_rounds: -110, under_8.5_rounds: -110 | Over 8.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tomoya Tsuboi -99% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.
Predicted Outcome
Despite Cuadras's significant experience and power advantage, the youth, momentum, and home advantage favor Tomoya Tsuboi narrowly. The fight is likely to be competitive, with Tsuboi winning by decision or late stoppage due to superior conditioning and handling Cuadras's power intelligently.
Predicted Score: Tomoya Tsuboi wins by unanimous decision after 10 rounds