Match Analysis: Carli Judice vs Nicolle Caliari – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-19
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans

Game Overview

The UFC 318 Flyweight early prelims fight features Carli Judice, a 26-year-old southpaw with a 4-2 record, facing Nicolle Caliari, a 28-year-old orthodox fighter with an 8-3 record. Judice is taller (5'7" vs. 5'3") and has a longer reach (68" vs. 62"). Judice exhibits a higher striking volume and accuracy, connecting on 11.18 significant strikes per minute at 53% accuracy, compared to Caliari's 3.85 strikes per minute at 41% accuracy. Defensively, Caliari takes fewer significant strikes per minute (5.57 vs. 10.01) and has a slightly better strike defense percentage (55% vs. 53%). The bout promises contrasting styles, with Judice favoring volume striking and Caliari relying on more defensive tactics.

Key Factors to Consider

• Judice shows a strong striking output and efficiency, while Caliari has a more defensive style with fewer absorbed strikes but less offensive volume.
• There is no record of previous matchups between Judice and Caliari, making this their first encounter.
• No reported injuries influencing the fight for either competitor as of current data.
• The fight takes place at UFC 318 in the Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, a neutral venue with no visible external distractions or disadvantages noted for either fighter.
• Judice is entering on a winning streak with momentum at age 26, possibly enhancing confidence and motivation. Caliari, being the more experienced fighter with a better win record, will aim to leverage experience and tactical defense to secure the win.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Carli Judice: -340, Nicolle Caliari: 280	Carli Judice to win	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	over: -245, under: 195	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Carli Judice 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 80%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 80% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 41% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Carli Judice is favored to win by decision given her higher strike volume and accuracy, although the defensive skills of Nicolle Caliari might limit damage and extend the fight duration.

Predicted Score: Judice wins by unanimous decision (3-0 rounds)

Match Analysis: Carli Judice vs Yuneisy Duben – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-15
• Time: 8:10 PM UTC
• Location: Not specified

Game Overview

Carli Judice and Yuneisy Duben are set to face off in a women's flyweight MMA match. Judice, with a height advantage and UFC experience, is favored over Duben, who remains undefeated but is making her UFC debut.

Key Factors to Consider

• Carli Judice has a mixed record in the UFC, while Yuneisy Duben is undefeated but lacks UFC experience. Judice's height and reach could be significant advantages.
• There is no previous head-to-head matchup between the two fighters.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight's outcome may be influenced by Duben's lack of UFC experience and Judice's familiarity with the organization.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Judice seeking to improve her UFC record and Duben aiming to make a successful debut.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Carli Judice: -360, Yuneisy Duben: +285	Carli Judice	★★★★☆ 70%
Over_under	Over 2.5: -175, Under 2.5: +135	Over 2.5	★★★☆☆ 55%

Predicted Outcome

Carli Judice is likely to win due to her UFC experience and physical advantages.

Predicted Score: Judice wins by decision.