Match Analysis: Ishmael Davis vs Caoimhin Agyarko – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-13
• Time: 5:00 PM UTC
• Location: Windsor Park, Belfast

Game Overview

Ishmael Davis and Caoimhin Agyarko face off in a 12-round junior middleweight boxing match with significant career implications for both fighters. Davis is known for his physical and aggressive style, relying on power and stamina, while Agyarko brings a strong amateur pedigree and technical boxing skills. The fight is expected to be a tactical and physical battle, with Davis aiming to disrupt Agyarko's rhythm and press early, and Agyarko confident in his undefeated record and endurance.

Key Factors to Consider

• Ishmael Davis has shown strong stamina and knockout power, with 4 of his last 5 wins by stoppage, and an ability to pressure opponents like Kelly. Caoimhin Agyarko is undefeated with a 17-0 record and 7 KOs, featuring technical superiority from his extensive amateur career including national titles and international representation, but with fewer stoppages.
• They have not fought before. Both are rising contenders in the junior middleweight division, with Davis stepping up recently against higher-level opponents but losing twice, while Agyarko remains unbeaten transitioning from a decorated amateur background to professional competition.
• No notable injuries reported for either combatant leading into the fight.
• The fight takes place in Belfast, which may slightly favor Caoimhin Agyarko, representing Ireland near home territory, potentially boosting local support. Davis has a reputation for taking fights on short notice and demonstrating resilience.
• Both fighters are highly motivated; Davis seeks redemption and a breakthrough win to offset recent losses and capitalize on his power and stamina advantage. Agyarko aims to maintain his undefeated record and validate his amateur pedigree with a signature pro victory.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -150, away: 120	Ishmael Davis to win	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	home: -1.5 at -120, away: +1.5 at +100	Ishmael Davis -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	over: -375, under: +275, line: 10.5	Under 10.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Ishmael Davis -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 10.5 163%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 10.5 at 163% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 59.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Ishmael Davis is favored to win by decision with a tactical approach that uses physicality to disrupt Agyarko’s rhythm. Davis’ better conditioning and power to close rounds could enable a late stoppage or a clear points victory. Agyarko is expected to box well but may struggle against Davis’ relentless pressure.

Predicted Score: Ishmael Davis wins by unanimous decision after 12 rounds

Match Analysis: Ryan Kelly vs Caoimhin Agyarko – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-19
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Canon Medical Arena, Sheffield, England

Game Overview

The upcoming Super Welterweight bout features Ryan Kelly facing Caoimhin Agyarko on April 19, 2025, at the Canon Medical Arena in Sheffield. Agyarko steps in on short notice following Ishmael Davis's injury, creating an intriguing matchup as Kelly looks to end a two-fight winless streak and Agyarko aims to maintain his unbeaten record of 16-0. The fight serves as a supporting bout to the Dalton Smith-Mathieu Germain card on DAZN.

Key Factors to Consider

• Ryan Kelly is coming off consecutive setbacks including a split decision loss and a draw, aiming to regain form. Caoimhin Agyarko, unbeaten at 16-0 with 7 KOs, has had limited ring activity over the recent years but is in good rhythm with a recent eight-round points victory in late March. Agyarko’s quick turnaround for this fight suggests sharp preparation but potentially limited rest.
• There is no prior head-to-head record between Ryan Kelly and Caoimhin Agyarko, making this their first meeting in the ring.
• Ishmael Davis withdrew due to an injury, opening the door for Agyarko to step in. Kelly does not report any recent injury concerns ahead of this contest.
• The fight takes place at a neutral venue in Sheffield with Agyarko traveling from Belfast and Kelly from Birmingham. The short-notice nature of Agyarko’s involvement could affect conditioning, but also suggests high motivation. The bout is a part of a high-profile card streamed on DAZN, adding exposure and pressure.
• Kelly is motivated to snap his losing streak and restore momentum in his career at age 31. Agyarko, at 28, is focused on preserving his unbeaten record and capitalizing on this opportunity to raise his profile with back-to-back fights in a short span.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Caoimhin Agyarko: -305, Ryan Kelly: 230	Caoimhin Agyarko	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Caoimhin Agyarko -1.5 rounds: -150, Ryan Kelly +1.5 rounds: +130	Caoimhin Agyarko -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 8.5 rounds: -610, Under 8.5 rounds: 410	Under 8.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Caoimhin Agyarko -10%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 8.5 283%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 283% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 68.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Caoimhin Agyarko is favored to win given his unbeaten status, recent sharp activity, and the betting market odds. Kelly’s experience and need to break his slump may push the fight to a competitive contest, but Agyarko’s higher confidence and form likely give him the edge.

Predicted Score: Caoimhin Agyarko wins by 9-round decision or late stoppage

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Oleksandr Gvozdyk vs. Anthony Hollaway Prediction	Under 7.5 rounds	-110	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Josh Warrington vs. Asad Asif Khan Prediction	Over 7.5 rounds	-110	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Ryan Kelly vs. Caoimhin Agyarko Prediction	Caoimhin Agyarko Win	-305	★★★★☆ 72% (72%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +384

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $96.79