Match Analysis: Ishmael Davis vs Caoimhin Agyarko – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-13
• Time: 5:00 PM UTC
• Location: Windsor Park, Belfast

Game Overview

A significant junior middleweight clash where Ishmael Davis, a pressure fighter with notable power and a recent strong gas tank, faces undefeated national-level amateur standout Caoimhin Agyarko, who relies on technical boxing skills and ring IQ.

Key Factors to Consider

• Davis has shown resilience by stepping in on short notice with strong late-round performance and 4 of last 5 wins by KO, indicating power and stamina; Agyarko is undefeated with 17-0 record, strong amateur pedigree, and a boxing style that favors rhythm and controlled pace.
• No previous direct encounters; styles contrast with Davis favoring physical aggression and Agyarko relying on tactical boxing.
• No public injury reports for either fighter; both appear fully fit.
• Fight at Windsor Park in Belfast favors Agyarko geographically though Davis has shown comfort fighting in hostile environments; media and community predictions lean heavily towards Davis by decision.
• Both fighters need a career-defining win; Davis’s motivation enhanced by recent near wins stepping up in class, Agyarko seeks to maintain perfect record and validate his amateur credentials in the pro ranks.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Ishmael Davis -150, Caoimhin Agyarko +120	Ishmael Davis	★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under	Over 10.5 -375, Under 10.5 +275	Under 10.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Ishmael Davis -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 10.5 163%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 10.5 at 163% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 59.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Moneyline: Ishmael Davis to win; Spread: Ishmael Davis by -2 rounds; Over/Under: Under 10.5 rounds

Predicted Score: Ishmael Davis wins by TKO in round 9

Match Analysis: Ryan Kelly vs Caoimhin Agyarko – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-19
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Canon Medical Arena, Sheffield, England

Game Overview

The upcoming Super Welterweight bout features Ryan Kelly facing Caoimhin Agyarko on April 19, 2025, at the Canon Medical Arena in Sheffield. Agyarko steps in on short notice following Ishmael Davis's injury, creating an intriguing matchup as Kelly looks to end a two-fight winless streak and Agyarko aims to maintain his unbeaten record of 16-0. The fight serves as a supporting bout to the Dalton Smith-Mathieu Germain card on DAZN.

Key Factors to Consider

• Ryan Kelly is coming off consecutive setbacks including a split decision loss and a draw, aiming to regain form. Caoimhin Agyarko, unbeaten at 16-0 with 7 KOs, has had limited ring activity over the recent years but is in good rhythm with a recent eight-round points victory in late March. Agyarko’s quick turnaround for this fight suggests sharp preparation but potentially limited rest.
• There is no prior head-to-head record between Ryan Kelly and Caoimhin Agyarko, making this their first meeting in the ring.
• Ishmael Davis withdrew due to an injury, opening the door for Agyarko to step in. Kelly does not report any recent injury concerns ahead of this contest.
• The fight takes place at a neutral venue in Sheffield with Agyarko traveling from Belfast and Kelly from Birmingham. The short-notice nature of Agyarko’s involvement could affect conditioning, but also suggests high motivation. The bout is a part of a high-profile card streamed on DAZN, adding exposure and pressure.
• Kelly is motivated to snap his losing streak and restore momentum in his career at age 31. Agyarko, at 28, is focused on preserving his unbeaten record and capitalizing on this opportunity to raise his profile with back-to-back fights in a short span.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Caoimhin Agyarko: -305, Ryan Kelly: 230	Caoimhin Agyarko	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Caoimhin Agyarko -1.5 rounds: -150, Ryan Kelly +1.5 rounds: +130	Caoimhin Agyarko -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 8.5 rounds: -610, Under 8.5 rounds: 410	Under 8.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Caoimhin Agyarko -10%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 8.5 283%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 283% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 68.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Caoimhin Agyarko is favored to win given his unbeaten status, recent sharp activity, and the betting market odds. Kelly’s experience and need to break his slump may push the fight to a competitive contest, but Agyarko’s higher confidence and form likely give him the edge.

Predicted Score: Caoimhin Agyarko wins by 9-round decision or late stoppage

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Oleksandr Gvozdyk vs. Anthony Hollaway Prediction	Under 7.5 rounds	-110	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Josh Warrington vs. Asad Asif Khan Prediction	Over 7.5 rounds	-110	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Ryan Kelly vs. Caoimhin Agyarko Prediction	Caoimhin Agyarko Win	-305	★★★★☆ 72% (72%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +384

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $96.79