Match Analysis: Cam Rowston vs Andre Petroski – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-28
• Time: 1:20 AM UTC
• Location: RAC Arena, Perth, Australia

Game Overview

The UFC middleweight matchup between Cam Rowston and Andre Petroski at UFC Perth pits a debuting striker with significant reach advantages against a more experienced grappler who relies on wrestling and ground control. Rowston, standing 6'3" with a 78-inch reach, seeks to utilize his striking and length to keep the fight standing, contrasting Petroski’s grappling base and UFC experience. The fight represents a classic striker versus grappler battle with Rowston aiming to prove himself and Petroski aiming to maintain momentum in the middleweight division.

Key Factors to Consider

• Cam Rowston enters on a high from a recent Contender Series TKO win and has a strong record of 12-3, demonstrating effective striking and submissions. Andre Petroski has UFC experience with a wrestling-oriented approach but has struggled slightly recently, including a loss by decision to Edmen Shahbazyan and some concerns about cardio. Petroski is favored due to experience and grappling advantage.
• This is their first meeting. The matchup is stylistically contrasting with no previous direct clashes between the fighters.
• No reported injuries affecting either fighter have been disclosed pre-fight.
• The fight takes place in Perth, Australia, which gives Rowston a hometown advantage and potential crowd support. Petroski faces the challenge of fighting away from home but brings a higher level of UFC experience, possibly mentally offsetting location effects.
• Rowston is highly motivated to make a strong UFC debut and prove his place at the top level. Petroski is motivated to regain winning form and climb the middleweight ranks after a recent defeat, aiming to use his grappling to control the fight.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Andre Petroski: -170, Cam Rowston: 142	Andre Petroski	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Andre Petroski: -3.5 115, Cam Rowston: 3.5 -155	Andre Petroski -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over: 2.5 -130, Under: 2.5 100	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Andre Petroski -7%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 10%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Andre Petroski to win via decision by controlling the fight on the ground. Rowston's striking and reach present challenges, but Petroski's wrestling and UFC experience provide an edge, especially if he can impose a grappling-heavy pace.

Predicted Score: Andre Petroski wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Brandon Holmes vs Cam Rowston – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-20
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Dana White's Contender Series

Game Overview

The match is a Middleweight division bout on the main card of Dana White's Contender Series between American Brandon Holmes and Australian Cam Rowston. Holmes is making his Contender Series debut with an undefeated 5-0 record, while Rowston has more professional experience with an 11-3 record. The fight is scheduled for August 20, 2025, and features a battle between Holmes' rising undefeated status and Rowston's seasoned approach from City Kickboxing.

Key Factors to Consider

• Brandon Holmes enters undefeated at 5-0, showing early career momentum and potential. Cam Rowston has an 11-3 record with a solid mix of finishes: 50% submissions, 25% KOs, and 16.7% decisions, indicating diverse skill sets. Rowston trains with City Kickboxing under Scott Ireland, known for producing well-rounded fighters.
• This is the first documented encounter between Brandon Holmes and Cam Rowston; no prior head-to-head data is available.
• No reported injuries or medical issues for either fighter ahead of the bout.
• The fight is held under high stakes within Dana White's Contender Series, providing strong motivation for both fighters to impress for a UFC contract. Holmes replaced Jon Kunneman, which may impact preparation time slightly but demonstrates his readiness.
• Both fighters are highly motivated to secure a UFC contract. Holmes aims to maintain his undefeated streak and capitalize on this high-profile opportunity. Rowston brings experience and a track record of finishing fights, aiming to solidify his status for the UFC as well.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Brandon Holmes: -140, Cam Rowston: 110	Brandon Holmes	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Brandon Holmes: -1.5 (-110), Cam Rowston: +1.5 (-110)	Brandon Holmes by more than 1.5 rounds or decisive finish	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -125, Under 2.5 rounds: -105	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Brandon Holmes -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 7%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Brandon Holmes is favored due to his slight moneyline advantage and undefeated status, but Cam Rowston's experience and submission skills make this competitive. Expect a tactical fight where Holmes uses striking and pace to control, but Rowston could capitalize on grappling opportunities to secure a submission or decision win.

Predicted Score: Brandon Holmes wins by decision or late stoppage within 3 rounds