Match Analysis: Nassourdine Imavov vs Caio Borralho – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-06
- Time: 9:45 PM UTC
- Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France
Game Overview
Middleweight clash between Nassourdine Imavov and Caio Borralho, both top-ranked UFC contenders vying for a title shot against Khamzat Chimaev. Imavov is a polished striker with a solid recent winning streak including a notable TKO over Israel Adesanya, while Borralho is an undefeated, well-rounded grappler with significant improvements in striking.
Key Factors to Consider
- Imavov enters on a four-fight winning streak (16-4-0), showing striking precision (4.45 significant strikes/min at 55% accuracy) and respectable defense (3.26 allowed/min, 58% strike defense). Borralho is undefeated in UFC (17-1-0), with strong grappling and recently improved striking (3.61 significant strikes/min at 60% accuracy), and better defensive numbers (2.34 allowed/min, 62% strike defense).
- No previous head-to-head bouts between Imavov and Borralho, making this a critical test of styles—Imavov's striking versus Borralho's evolving striking and elite grappling.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the bout, indicating both are likely at peak condition.
- Fight takes place in Paris, potentially giving Imavov a slight edge due to proximity and comfort. Both fighters motivated by prospect of title shot against Khamzat Chimaev.
- Both fighters highly motivated, although Borralho’s undefeated UFC record and recent enhancements in striking may fuel confidence, while Imavov looks to continue momentum from recent high-profile wins.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: +105, away: -125 | Nassourdine Imavov | ★★★☆☆ 66% |
| Spread | home: -205 (Imavov +5.5), away: 150 (Borralho -5.5) | Imavov +5.5 | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Over/under | over: -195 (4.5 rounds), under: 150 (4.5 rounds) | Under 4.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Caio Borralho 3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 4.5 55% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 4.5 at 55% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 36.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Nassourdine Imavov to win by decision
Predicted Score: Imavov wins by unanimous decision after 5 rounds