Match Analysis: Cincinnati Bearcats vs BYU Cougars – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 22, 2025
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati
Game Overview
The No. 11 BYU Cougars (9-1, 6-1 Big 12) travel to face the Cincinnati Bearcats (7-3, 5-2 Big 12) in a crucial Big 12 conference matchup. BYU controls their own destiny in the conference standings with only one loss to Texas Tech, while Cincinnati must win and needs help to reach the Big 12 championship game. Both teams feature strong rushing attacks, with BYU ranked 22nd nationally and Cincinnati ranked 21st in rushing yards. This matchup will significantly impact both teams' playoff and conference championship aspirations.
Key Factors to Consider
- BYU has demonstrated superior overall performance with a 9-1 record and strong statistical metrics. The Cougars have a methodical, ground-based offensive approach, preferring to run the ball, control the clock, and wear down opponents. Cincinnati, while 7-3, has shown inconsistency, particularly on the offensive side, scoring only 17 points against Nebraska, 20 against UCF, 14 at Utah, and 24 against Arizona last week. Cincinnati's defense is described as just average, which favors BYU's grinding offensive style. BYU is 7-3 against the spread this season, while Cincinnati is 6-4 ATS. Cincinnati has gone 4-1 in their last 5 games and 2-3 ATS in that span.
- No historical head-to-head data is provided in the search results for this specific matchup. Both teams are conference rivals in the Big 12, but direct comparison metrics are limited to current season statistics.
- Specific injury information is not available in the provided search results.
- The game will be played at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati, giving the Bearcats a home-field advantage. Weather conditions show 44°F and 0% chance of rain, indicating favorable playing conditions. The game will be broadcast on FOX. Public betting shows 63% of bets on BYU compared to 37% on Cincinnati, indicating moderate confidence in the Cougars among bettors.
- BYU's motivation is to protect their top-seeded Big 12 position and maintain their path to the College Football Playoff. Cincinnati faces a must-win scenario, as they cannot afford another conference loss if they hope to reach the championship game. This creates higher pressure on the Bearcats but also potential desperation play. BYU's coaching staff, led by Kalani Sitaki, is known for conservative, mistake-avoidant decision-making, which favors a defensive approach in close games.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | BYU -135 | Cincinnati +114 | BYU Cougars | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Spread | BYU -2.5 (-115) | Cincinnati +2.5 (-105) | BYU -2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 54.5 (-110) | Under 54.5 (-110) | Under 54.5 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | BYU Cougars 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 54.5 5% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 54.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
BYU is favored to win this matchup based on superior overall team performance, statistical metrics, and the eye test. Multiple predictive models favor the Cougars covering the spread. BYU's defensive coaching, ball-control offensive approach, and statistical superiority over Cincinnati's inconsistent offensive production suggest a BYU victory with a lower-scoring game than anticipated.
Predicted Score: BYU 32, Cincinnati 21