Match Analysis: Marc-Andre Barriault vs Bruno Silva – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-10
- Time: 10:30 PM UTC
- Location: Bell Centre, Montréal, Québec, Canada
Game Overview
The UFC 315 prelim middleweight bout between Marc-André Barriault and Bruno Silva on May 10, 2025, is a key fight for both fighters seeking to break losing streaks. Barriault, a Quebec native, returns to compete in his home province for the first time since 2018, aiming to leverage home advantage after three consecutive losses. Silva, a Brazilian striker with black belt BJJ credentials, enters on a difficult four-fight losing streak and recently took a hiatus due to anxiety issues. This matchup promises an exciting striking battle, complemented by potential grappling exchanges due to Silva's superior ground skills.
Key Factors to Consider
- Barriault brings volume striking and pressure, while Silva offers power striking and high-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Both have struggled recently with Barriault at 1-6 in UFC and Silva 4-6 in UFC. Silva’s recent four-fight losing streak and recent mental health break may affect performance. Barriault aims to rally with home support and familiarity at Bell Centre.
- This is the first meeting between Marc-André Barriault and Bruno Silva, so no direct head-to-head data exists.
- No reported injuries for either fighter prior to the bout.
- Fighting in Montreal, Barriault benefits from home crowd support and motivation to win at home after a long absence. Silva may face psychological challenges from recent anxiety crisis and losing streak. The long-awaited UFC return to Montreal adds significance.
- Barriault is in must-win territory to revive his UFC career and reignite momentum in front of a home crowd. Silva seeks to overcome recent mental health challenges and prolonged losing skid, aiming to get back on track in the division.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bruno Silva: 130, Marc-Andre Barriault: -155 | Marc-André Barriault | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Bruno Silva +3.5: -150, Marc-Andre Barriault -3.5: 110 | Marc-André Barriault -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 rounds: -200, Under 1.5 rounds: 154 | Over 1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Marc-Andre Barriault 43% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 1.5 8% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Marc-Andre Barriault at 43% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Marc-André Barriault is predicted to narrowly outpoint Bruno Silva via decision. Barriault's pressure and volume striking, combined with home advantage, are expected to neutralize Silva's power and grappling. Silva's BJJ skills could pose a threat if he manages to take the fight to the ground, but Barriault’s durability and cardio should allow him to avoid prolonged submission danger.
Predicted Score: Marc-André Barriault wins by unanimous decision after three rounds