This NRL Round 23 matchup features the Melbourne Storm hosting the Brisbane Broncos at AAMI Park. Melbourne enters as strong favorites based on form, head-to-head data, and home advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
Melbourne Storm has demonstrated strong performance recently, leveraging home advantage and consistent form. Brisbane Broncos have struggled for consistency and are underdogs with recent losses.
Historically, Melbourne Storm holds an advantage over Brisbane Broncos, winning about 67% of matches based on simulations of 10,000 games. Recent encounters also favor Melbourne, including a close encounter earlier in 2025.
No major injuries reported for either side that would significantly impact the outcome. Both teams expected to field near full-strength lineups.
Playing at home in Melbourne provides Storm with a familiar environment and crowd support, which historically boosts their win probability.
As the season progresses towards finals, Storm's motivation to secure a top ladder position appears higher than the Broncos, who have less to play for currently.
The Brisbane Broncos enter as significant favorites hosting the South Sydney Rabbitohs, who have struggled on the road. Brisbane showcases superior recent form, a stronger attack and defense, and benefits from strong home advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
Brisbane is in peak form, ranked 5th in power rankings versus South Sydney's 17th, with an attack advantage of 8.7 points per game and very solid defensive metrics. The Rabbitohs have continued to struggle away from home.
Historical data favors Brisbane strongly: out of 50 matches, Broncos won 33, including 19 at home. At Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane won 14 of 21 meetings against South Sydney with a 487–436 points edge.
No critical injuries reported for either side that would significantly change team strength; Broncos maintain a near full-strength squad boosting their dominance.
The hostile atmosphere at Suncorp Stadium and Friday night timing favors Brisbane, who historically thrive in this environment. South Sydney travel fatigue and poor away record create a challenging scenario for them.
Brisbane is motivated to secure a commanding win to consolidate playoff positioning, while South Sydney faces pressure to break a poor away streak and salvage confidence.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Brisbane Broncos -675, South Sydney Rabbitohs +460, Draw +2800
Brisbane Broncos
★★★★☆ 74%
Spread
Brisbane Broncos -16.5 (-110), South Sydney Rabbitohs +16.5 (-120)
Brisbane Broncos -16.5
★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under
Over 49.5 (-115), Under 49.5 (-115)
Under 49.5
★★★☆☆ 68%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Brisbane Broncos -15%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 49.5 27%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 49.5 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 31.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Brisbane Broncos will win outright with a strong defensive performance keeping the total score under 49.5 points.
Predicted Score: Brisbane Broncos 24 – South Sydney Rabbitohs 14
Round 21 NRL clash between Brisbane Broncos and Parramatta Eels at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane Broncos are strong favorites with significant home advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
Broncos demonstrated dominant form recently and hold an 81% win probability over Eels per simulation models, while Eels have struggled against top teams.
Broncos have historically had a strong record against the Eels, frequently winning by comfortable margins especially at home.
No major injury news impacting key players from either side was reported; squads expected near full strength.
Home field advantage for Broncos at Suncorp Stadium combined with supportive crowd enhances their chances.
Broncos motivated to solidify playoff positioning; Eels need a upset to stay competitive, but recent form discounts their chances as strong underdogs.
The Canterbury Bulldogs host the Brisbane Broncos at Accor Stadium in a critical NRL Round 18 clash. The Bulldogs come into the match with some squad changes but retain strong home ground advantage, while the Broncos face key absences in crucial positions.
Key Factors to Consider
Canterbury Bulldogs have shown resilience with solid team depth, integrating new players such as Blake Wilson and Enari Tuala. Brisbane Broncos, while competitive, are missing significant contributors including Reece Walsh and Payne Haas, which could impact their forward pack and attack dynamics.
Historical encounters between these two teams have been competitive, with recent fixtures showing closely fought contests. The teams are relatively evenly matched in past results though the Bulldogs have slight home advantage.
Canterbury Bulldogs are without Jacob Kiraz, Stephen Crichton, Max King, Daniel Suluka-Fifita, and Kurt Mann. Brisbane Broncos miss Reece Walsh, Gehamat Shibasaki, Payne Haas, and Patrick Carrigan due to injury.
The match takes place at Accor Stadium with expected good conditions, favoring the home side. Crowd support is likely robust for the Bulldogs. No adverse weather or logistical issues reported.
Both teams are vying for position in the league standings with the Bulldogs aiming to capitalize on home advantage and Broncos looking to overcome key absences and maintain playoff hopes.
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Canterbury Bulldogs -13%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 42.5 26%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 42.5 at 26% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the injury concerns for Brisbane and strong squad depth for Canterbury, the Bulldogs are favored to win this match with a moderate confidence level relying on home advantage and squad stability.
The upcoming NRL match between Brisbane Broncos and New Zealand Warriors is set at Suncorp Stadium with the Broncos looking to extend their winning streak at home, having scored 78 points in back-to-back wins. The Warriors, ranked 4th, are slightly ahead in the table compared to the Broncos in 5th. Both teams have recent success at this venue, with the Warriors having claimed three of their last four games at Suncorp but not defeating the Broncos there since 2018. Key players such as Reece Walsh and Payne Haas are influential for the Broncos, while the Warriors welcome back Kurt Capewell following injury. The match is anticipated to be highly competitive, featuring solid performances and tactical adjustments from both sides.
Key Factors to Consider
The Broncos have strong momentum, scoring 78 points over their last two home games and successfully overcoming a 16-point deficit against the Sharks recently. Reece Walsh’s return from injury has significantly boosted their attack, and Payne Haas continues to lead their forward pack effectively. The Warriors have won three of their last four games at Suncorp, showing capacity to challenge at this ground, although they have not beaten the Broncos there since 2018. Lineup changes favor the Warriors with Queensland State of Origin star Kurt Capewell returning, and key players like Rocco Berry and Edward Kosi coming back from injury, potentially strengthening their second-row and wings.
Historically, the Warriors have struggled to defeat the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium, failing to win there since 2018. However, they have won three of their past four encounters at this venue in recent times, indicating a more competitive edge than in past years. Their last season meetings demonstrated balanced try counts, with Warriors scoring four tries and Broncos three in one match during Round 7 2025.
The Warriors are missing Dallin Watene-Zelezniak due to an ankle injury sidelining him for four to six weeks, but have regained Moala Graham-Taufa and welcomed back Kurt Capewell. The Broncos have maintained a consistent lineup with no major changes reported ahead of the match, signaling squad stability. Both teams have deep reserves available on the interchange bench to manage any injuries during the match.
The match day features a unique schedule with a double-header at Suncorp Stadium, which may influence atmosphere and pitch conditions slightly. Weather and travel fatigue do not appear to be major concerns as both teams are accustomed to playing at this venue. Referee Adam Gee, experienced in high-stakes games, will officiate, potentially ensuring a well-controlled match environment.
The Broncos are motivated to secure their third consecutive home victory and maintain momentum in the competition. The Warriors are driven to rebound strongly from a recent unexpected loss to the Panthers and will look to leverage their recent good form at Suncorp Stadium. Both teams are placed closely in the standings (4th vs 5th), adding competitive tension for valuable table points.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Brisbane Broncos: -186, New Zealand Warriors: 158, Draw: 2100
Brisbane Broncos
★★★★☆ 72%
Spread
Brisbane Broncos -5.5: -125, New Zealand Warriors +5.5: -105
Brisbane Broncos -5.5
★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under
Over 48.5: -115, Under 48.5: -115
Over 48.5
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Brisbane Broncos -3%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 48.5 8%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 48.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the Broncos’ strong recent home performances and the Warriors’ mixed history against them at Suncorp, the Broncos hold a slight advantage. Expect a closely contested match with the Broncos edging out the Warriors by a narrow margin, leveraging home ground momentum and key player form.
Predicted Score: Brisbane Broncos 26 – 20 New Zealand Warriors
The upcoming NRL match between Brisbane Broncos and Cronulla Sutherland Sharks at Suncorp Stadium is poised as a significant clash, with the Broncos hosting the Sharks. Historically, the Broncos have dominated the head-to-heads, particularly at home, and carry a strong recent form into this fixture.
Key Factors to Consider
Brisbane Broncos have a superior overall record against the Sharks, with 41 wins out of 64 matches compared to the Sharks' 23. At home in Brisbane, Broncos have won 27 out of 35 meetings, showcasing strong home performance. Both teams have played competitively this season, though Broncos tend to have more consistent form at their home venue.
Since 1988, Brisbane Broncos lead the series with 41 wins compared to 23 by Cronulla Sharks. At Suncorp Stadium, the Broncos have won 12 out of 19 matches against the Sharks, who have won 7. The Broncos have had notable winning streaks up to 8 games overall against the Sharks, highlighting their historical edge.
Current specific injury updates for the match have not been publicly detailed, but any last-minute changes could impact the Sharks more, given their less consistent squad depth compared to the Broncos. Monitoring team line-ups close to match time is advised.
The match is played at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane, giving the Broncos home ground advantage. Weather conditions and pitch condition at the time of the match could also influence play style but are currently unknown.
Brisbane Broncos are likely highly motivated to assert dominance over a regional rival and consolidate their standing in the table, while the Sharks will aim to upset the home team and improve their away record.
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Brisbane Broncos -0%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 46.5 1%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 46.5 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the historical dominance, strong home record, and current odds favoring Brisbane Broncos, the prediction is a victory for the Broncos. The match is expected to be competitive but the Broncos' consistency and home advantage give them the edge.
The Brisbane Broncos face off against the Gold Coast Titans in Round 14 of the NRL. The Broncos are favored to win, with strong odds in their favor.
Key Factors to Consider
The Broncos have been performing well recently, while the Titans have had mixed results. The Broncos' home advantage at Suncorp Stadium could significantly impact their performance.
The Broncos generally have a strong head-to-head record against the Titans.
Injuries for both teams could affect the lineup and overall team performance.
Weather conditions and crowd support might influence the game's dynamics.
Both teams are motivated to win, but the Broncos may have an edge due to their current form and home field advantage.
The Manly Warringah Sea Eagles are set to face the Brisbane Broncos in Round 13 of the 2025 NRL season. The Broncos are favored to win with current odds reflecting a strong chance of victory. Key factors include team performance, head-to-head statistics, injuries, external factors like weather or suspensions, and team motivation.
Key Factors to Consider
The Broncos have shown a strong performance recently, while the Sea Eagles face challenges without key players.
Historical data shows varied results between the two teams, but recent form favors the Broncos.
The Sea Eagles have faced significant injury issues, which may impact their team dynamics.
State of Origin selections and recent suspensions could influence team lineups.
Both teams are motivated to secure a win, but the Broncos might have an edge due to their current form and team depth.
The Brisbane Broncos face the St George Illawarra Dragons in a crucial NRL match at Suncorp Stadium. The Broncos are favored to win, given their strong performance and home advantage. The Dragons, however, have shown resilience in previous matches and could pose a challenge.
Key Factors to Consider
Brisbane Broncos have been performing well lately, with a solid team structure and strong defense. St George Illawarra Dragons have struggled with consistency but have the potential to upset any team on their day.
Recent head-to-head statistics show that the Broncos have had a slight edge over the Dragons, but the Dragons have managed to secure important wins historically.
Injury reports are not specified, but any significant absences could impact team dynamics.
Weather conditions and crowd support could influence the game, with Brisbane's home crowd potentially boosting their performance.
Both teams are motivated, with the Broncos aiming to maintain their form and the Dragons seeking an upset to improve their standings.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Brisbane Broncos: -315, St George Illawarra Dragons: 260, Draw: 2500
Brisbane Broncos
★★★★☆ 80%
Spread
Brisbane Broncos: -10.5 -115, St George Illawarra Dragons: 10.5 -115
Brisbane Broncos to cover the spread
★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under
Over: 50.5 -115, Under: 50.5 -115
Over
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Brisbane Broncos 5%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 50.5 3%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Brisbane Broncos at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Brisbane Broncos are likely to win, given their current form and home advantage.
Predicted Score: Brisbane Broncos 28 – 20 St George Illawarra Dragons
