Match Analysis: Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-18
• Time: 2:00 AM UTC
• Location: Rogers Arena, Vancouver, Canada

Game Overview

Reinier de Ridder steps into a high-stakes main event against Brendan Allen at UFC Vancouver after Anthony Hernandez withdrew due to injury. Allen is the replacement and will face Dricus du Plessis, a former double champ, in a matchup with significant title shot ramifications.

Key Factors to Consider

• Brendan Allen is coming off a hard-fought decision win over Marvin Vettori, snapping a two-fight skid, and is ranked #11. De Ridder enters the UFC for the first time with a decorated grappling background but no prior Octagon experience. The leap in competition for de Ridder is significant, while Allen’s activity and proven divisional performance are noteworthy[1][2].
• No prior head-to-head meeting, but Allen has lost only to top-10 opponents while De Ridder’s record is mostly outside the UFC.
• No known injuries for either fighter. The main change is Allen stepping in on short notice after Hernandez withdrew[1][2].
• De Ridder’s UFC debut may bring nerves or excitement; Allen is game-tested in the Octagon and under less pressure as the underdog. The change in opponent may have rattled fight prep for de Ridder[1][2].
• Allen has a chance to leap into Top 5 with a win and erase the narrative of only losing to top contenders. De Ridder wants to make a statement in his UFC debut and validate his champion pedigree.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	{Brendan Allen: +135, Reinier de Ridder: -155}	Brendan Allen to win	★★★☆☆ 61%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Brendan Allen 43%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Brendan Allen at 43% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

This is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. De Ridder’s grappling is elite, but Allen’s well-rounded game, UFC-level experience, and recent form suggest he can neutralize De Ridder’s best weapon. Allen’s recent wins have shown steady improvement, and he enters with momentum—valuable against a UFC debutant. De Ridder’s lack of UFC experience and the short-notice adjustment tilt this toward Allen as a live underdog.

Predicted Score: Brendan Allen by Decision

Match Analysis: Brendan Allen vs Marvin Vettori – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-20
• Time: 2:00 AM UTC
• Location: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans

Game Overview

Middleweight clash between Brendan Allen and Marvin Vettori at UFC 318 featuring two top contenders with contrasting fighting styles and recent mixed form.

Key Factors to Consider

• Brendan Allen holds a slightly better recent form at 24-7, with high striking accuracy (53%) and solid defense (45%). Marvin Vettori (19-8-1) exhibits a higher volume in striking (4.54 per minute) but is less efficient both offensively and defensively.
• No direct head-to-head matchup history available, making recent form and stylistic matchup the primary focus.
• No recent injuries reported for either fighter that would impact performance significantly.
• Fight takes place at a neutral venue with no notable external factors affecting either fighter.
• Both fighters motivated to solidify rankings; Vettori looking to prove durability and striking after recent loss, Allen aiming to extend momentum with grappling dominance.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Brendan Allen: -192, Marvin Vettori: 160	Brendan Allen	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Brendan Allen -3.5: 125, Marvin Vettori +3.5: -170	Marvin Vettori +3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -345, Under 2.5: 250	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Brendan Allen -9%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -14%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Brendan Allen at -9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Brendan Allen to win via decision, given grappling control and efficient striking.

Predicted Score: Brendan Allen wins by decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Brendan Allen vs Anthony Hernandez – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-02-22
• Time: 3:45 AM UTC
• Location: Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle

Game Overview

Brendan Allen faces Anthony Hernandez in a middleweight bout at UFC Fight Night 252. Hernandez is favored due to his recent performance, while Allen looks to bounce back from a loss.

Key Factors to Consider

• Anthony Hernandez recently secured a TKO victory over Michel Pereira, showcasing momentum. Brendan Allen lost his last bout via unanimous decision to Nassourdine Imavov.
• There is no prior head-to-head matchup between Brendan Allen and Anthony Hernandez.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight takes place at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, which may not significantly impact either fighter.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Hernandez looking to continue his winning streak and Allen seeking redemption.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Anthony Hernandez: -340, Brendan Allen: +270	Anthony Hernandez	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	Anthony Hernandez: -3.5 -125, Brendan Allen: +3.5 -105	Anthony Hernandez	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over 2.5: -210, Under 2.5: +160	Over 2.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Anthony Hernandez is likely to win due to his recent form and performance.

Predicted Score: Anthony Hernandez wins by decision.

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Mansur Abdul	Abdul-Malik Win	-1200	★★★★★ 90% (90%)
Jean Silva vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan Prediction	Jean Silva Win	-520	★★★★☆ 85% (85%)
Brendan Allen vs. Anthony Hernandez Prediction	Anthony Hernandez Win	-340	★★★★☆ 70% (70%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: -149

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $33.43