Match Analysis: Brandon Holmes vs Cam Rowston – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-20
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Dana White's Contender Series
Game Overview
The match is a Middleweight division bout on the main card of Dana White's Contender Series between American Brandon Holmes and Australian Cam Rowston. Holmes is making his Contender Series debut with an undefeated 5-0 record, while Rowston has more professional experience with an 11-3 record. The fight is scheduled for August 20, 2025, and features a battle between Holmes' rising undefeated status and Rowston's seasoned approach from City Kickboxing.
Key Factors to Consider
- Brandon Holmes enters undefeated at 5-0, showing early career momentum and potential. Cam Rowston has an 11-3 record with a solid mix of finishes: 50% submissions, 25% KOs, and 16.7% decisions, indicating diverse skill sets. Rowston trains with City Kickboxing under Scott Ireland, known for producing well-rounded fighters.
- This is the first documented encounter between Brandon Holmes and Cam Rowston; no prior head-to-head data is available.
- No reported injuries or medical issues for either fighter ahead of the bout.
- The fight is held under high stakes within Dana White's Contender Series, providing strong motivation for both fighters to impress for a UFC contract. Holmes replaced Jon Kunneman, which may impact preparation time slightly but demonstrates his readiness.
- Both fighters are highly motivated to secure a UFC contract. Holmes aims to maintain his undefeated streak and capitalize on this high-profile opportunity. Rowston brings experience and a track record of finishing fights, aiming to solidify his status for the UFC as well.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Brandon Holmes: -140, Cam Rowston: 110 | Brandon Holmes | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Brandon Holmes: -1.5 (-110), Cam Rowston: +1.5 (-110) | Brandon Holmes by more than 1.5 rounds or decisive finish | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -125, Under 2.5 rounds: -105 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Brandon Holmes -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 7% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Brandon Holmes is favored due to his slight moneyline advantage and undefeated status, but Cam Rowston's experience and submission skills make this competitive. Expect a tactical fight where Holmes uses striking and pace to control, but Rowston could capitalize on grappling opportunities to secure a submission or decision win.
Predicted Score: Brandon Holmes wins by decision or late stoppage within 3 rounds