Match Analysis: Gable Steveson vs Braden Peterson – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-12
• Time: 11:30 PM UTC
• Location: Mystic Lake Casino Hotel, Minnesota

Game Overview

Gable Steveson, an Olympic gold medalist and decorated wrestler making his professional MMA debut, faces Braden Peterson, a 37-year-old heavyweight with a 1-0 pro record highlighted by a quick knockout. The bout is highly anticipated due to Steveson's wrestling pedigree and Peterson's experience and power.

Key Factors to Consider

• Steveson has dominant amateur wrestling credentials but no professional MMA fights; Peterson has one quick KO win in MMA but less elite wrestling background.
• No previous meetings between the fighters; this is their first matchup.
• No reported injuries for either fighter going into the bout.
• Fight held in Steveson's home state with strong fan support; Peterson motivated by public backing from MMA legends Daniel Cormier and Chael Sonnen.
• Steveson highly motivated to launch a successful MMA career; Peterson motivated as underdog with external encouragement.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -2000, away: 1000	Gable Steveson	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	home: -150, away: +130	Gable Steveson -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	over_1.5: +252, under_1.5: -310	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 80%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Gable Steveson -9%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -7%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at -7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Gable Steveson to win by moneyline, covering the spread, and fight going under 1.5 rounds

Predicted Score: Gable Steveson wins via decision or ground control before round 2