Match Analysis: Brad Tavares vs Robert Bryczek – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-06
• Time: 5:15 PM UTC
• Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France

Game Overview

The UFC middleweight clash at UFC Paris features veteran Brad Tavares (21-11) against rising contender Robert Bryczek (17-6). Both orthodox fighters weigh 185 lbs, with Tavares slightly taller at 6'1" and Bryczek having a marginally longer reach of 75". Tavares is known for his volume striking and durability, landing 3.42 significant strikes per minute at 43% accuracy and defending well, allowing only 3.28 significant strikes per minute. Bryczek throws fewer strikes (2.13 per minute) with lower accuracy (24%) but defends even better, allowing 4.47 strikes and blocking 60% of incoming strikes. The bout promises a contrast of Tavares's experience and persistent striking against Bryczek's toughness and countering approach.

Key Factors to Consider

• Brad Tavares has faced consistently high-level competition, showing resilience and versatility with 7 KOs, 2 submissions, and 15 decision wins. Robert Bryczek is a powerful striker with a KO-heavy record (10 KOs), less experienced but dangerous due to his finishing ability.
• No recorded previous fights between Brad Tavares and Robert Bryczek, making this their first encounter.
• No reported injuries or fitness issues for either fighter leading up to the fight.
• The fight takes place in Paris, which could have an impact on mental readiness due to travel for both fighters, though no specific advantage is noted. Both fighters are motivated, with Tavares emphasizing determination for a win ahead of the event.
• Brad Tavares aims to solidify his position in the middleweight division by outlasting younger competition, while Bryczek is motivated to prove himself on a major stage and potentially accelerate his UFC career.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Brad Tavares: -225, Robert Bryczek: 185	Brad Tavares to win	★★★☆☆ 66%
Spread	Brad Tavares -3.5: 110, Robert Bryczek +3.5: -150	Brad Tavares to win by more than 3.5 points (rounds)	★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -215, Under 2.5: 165	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Brad Tavares -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 46%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 46% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Brad Tavares is favored due to his experience, higher accuracy, and better defensive metrics. He is expected to win by a decision after a tactical and high-volume striking battle should Bryczek's knockout power not quickly change the tide.

Predicted Score: Brad Tavares wins via unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Brad Tavares vs Gerald Meerschaert – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: April 6, 2025
• Time: 1:45 AM UTC
• Location: Las Vegas, NV

Game Overview

Brad Tavares and Gerald Meerschaert are set to face off in a highly anticipated MMA bout. Both fighters have extensive experience, with Tavares known for his striking capabilities and Meerschaert recognized for his grappling expertise.

Key Factors to Consider

• Brad Tavares comes into this fight with a recent history of solid performances, showcasing a balance of striking and defensive skills. Gerald Meerschaert, with a diverse arsenal of submissions, poses a significant threat if the fight goes to the ground.
• There is no recent head-to-head data available, suggesting that past encounters may not significantly influence the outcome of this fight.
• No significant injuries have been reported for either fighter leading up to the match.
• The match's Las Vegas venue suggests a neutral setting for both fighters, minimizing potential external advantages.
• Both fighters are likely highly motivated, given the stakes in a UFC matchup.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-218 for Brad Tavares, +180 for Gerald Meerschaert	Brad Tavares	★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread	-3.5 for Brad Tavares, +3.5 for Gerald Meerschaert	Brad Tavares	★★☆☆☆ 45%
Over_under	Over 2.5 -188, Under 2.5 +145	Over 2.5	★★★☆☆ 55%

Predicted Outcome

Brad Tavares is expected to win due to his well-rounded skills and past performance trends.

Predicted Score: Decision in favor of Brad Tavares