Match Analysis: Bekzat Almakhan vs Brad Katona – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-10
- Time: 10:30 PM UTC
- Location: Bell Centre, Montréal, Québec, Canada
Game Overview
This is a UFC 315 preliminary bantamweight bout between Bekzat Almakhan (11-2, 0-1 UFC) and Brad Katona (14-4, 4-4 UFC). Almakhan enters as a slight favorite with higher upside, while Katona brings UFC experience and consistency. The fight is expected to be competitive, with both fighters having paths to victory.
Key Factors to Consider
- Almakhan is an aggressive striker with a strong regional record, looking to rebound from his UFC debut loss. Katona is well-rounded, with solid wrestling and cardio, and a reputation for being difficult to finish. Both have shown resilience and adaptability in their recent bouts.
- No prior fights between these two fighters.
- No reported injuries for either fighter as of fight week.
- Fight is in Canada, which may give Katona a slight crowd advantage. Both are acclimated to the venue and similar conditions.
- Almakhan is motivated to secure his first UFC win. Katona is looking to break his pattern of 'consistent to a fault' performances and move up the ranks.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Almakhan: -156, Katona: 136 | Almakhan | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Not widely available for MMA, but equivalent implied line: Almakhan -1.5 (~ +175), Katona +1.5 (~ -210) | Almakhan to cover if line exists, but Katona +1.5 is safer | 55% (Almakhan cover), 70% (Katona +1.5) |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -325, Under 2.5: +250 | Over 2.5 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bekzat Almakhan 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 -1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Bekzat Almakhan at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Almakhan is the slight favorite due to his striking power and potential, but Katona's experience and grappling could level the playing field. Expect a competitive fight, with Almakhan likely to win by decision, though Katona could spring an upset with effective grappling.
Predicted Score: Decision win for Bekzat Almakhan (Almakhan 29-28 on scorecards)